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Stolas "Bellwether"
Stolas "Bellwether"
Published: 2017/02/03
Channel: Equal Vision Records
Zootopia - Mayor Bellwether Gets Arrested + News Cast
Zootopia - Mayor Bellwether Gets Arrested + News Cast
Published: 2016/06/16
Channel: FREE MOVIES
Zootopia - Bellwether best moments [HD]
Zootopia - Bellwether best moments [HD]
Published: 2016/11/29
Channel: Like Movies
"Assistant Mayor Bellwether" Clip - Disney
"Assistant Mayor Bellwether" Clip - Disney's Zootopia
Published: 2016/02/12
Channel: Walt Disney Animation Studios
Bellwether - Compromise (Official Music Video)
Bellwether - Compromise (Official Music Video)
Published: 2013/07/16
Channel: Bellwether The Band
Zootopie - Extrait : l’adjointe au maire Bellwether
Zootopie - Extrait : l’adjointe au maire Bellwether
Published: 2016/02/12
Channel: Disney FR
Zootopia: Nick se vuelve salvaje/Bellwether es arrestada
Zootopia: Nick se vuelve salvaje/Bellwether es arrestada
Published: 2016/12/21
Channel: la animacion es mi locura
Zootopia: Jenny Slate "Bellwether" Behind the Scenes Movie Broll
Zootopia: Jenny Slate "Bellwether" Behind the Scenes Movie Broll
Published: 2016/02/18
Channel: ScreenSlam
Walrus Audio Bellwether Delay
Walrus Audio Bellwether Delay
Published: 2015/07/27
Channel: shnobel
Zootopia   Bellwether Smellwether Best Moments HD
Zootopia Bellwether Smellwether Best Moments HD
Published: 2017/02/23
Channel: Marvel & Disney clips
Stolas - Bellwether - Cover By Mike Smith
Stolas - Bellwether - Cover By Mike Smith
Published: 2017/02/04
Channel: Mikerisms
Bellwether - Purpleheart Snare Build Promo
Bellwether - Purpleheart Snare Build Promo
Published: 2013/11/22
Channel: Stavebuilder
Bellwether tries to turn Nick savage/Grounded
Bellwether tries to turn Nick savage/Grounded
Published: 2016/06/13
Channel: ZootopiaYesDoraTheExplorerNo VGCP
Zootopia: Jenny Slate "Bellwether" Behind the Scenes Movie Interview
Zootopia: Jenny Slate "Bellwether" Behind the Scenes Movie Interview
Published: 2016/02/18
Channel: ScreenSlam
ZOOTOPIA -  "Assistant Mayor Bellwether"
ZOOTOPIA - "Assistant Mayor Bellwether"
Published: 2016/02/12
Channel: WaltDisneyStudiosCAN
The Bellwether Syndicate - The Night Watch
The Bellwether Syndicate - The Night Watch
Published: 2013/06/30
Channel: Felipe Barrera
Black Sheoak Bellwether stave snare
Black Sheoak Bellwether stave snare
Published: 2016/02/22
Channel: Stavebuilder
Bellwether - Home Late
Bellwether - Home Late
Published: 2012/09/14
Channel: theturtlesmasher
Walrus Audio Bellwether Analog Delay Pedal Demo
Walrus Audio Bellwether Analog Delay Pedal Demo
Published: 2015/07/20
Channel: Reverb.com
Animation: Bellwether (Zootopia Parody 1)
Animation: Bellwether (Zootopia Parody 1)
Published: 2016/05/02
Channel: Jusu-Tengu
Bellwether
Bellwether
Published: 2017/02/02
Channel: Stolas - Topic
Escena De Películas - Zootopia Escena De Bellwether Es Arrestada
Escena De Películas - Zootopia Escena De Bellwether Es Arrestada
Published: 2017/06/25
Channel: Escenas De Peliculas!!!!
Walrus Audio Bellwether Analog Delay
Walrus Audio Bellwether Analog Delay
Published: 2015/06/30
Channel: ProGuitarShopDemos
Bellwether: Be Prepared (Zootopia and Disney)
Bellwether: Be Prepared (Zootopia and Disney)
Published: 2016/05/13
Channel: Nicky Bloo
Escenas De Películas - Zootopia Escena De Bellwether Ayuda A Judy
Escenas De Películas - Zootopia Escena De Bellwether Ayuda A Judy
Published: 2017/06/23
Channel: Escenas De Peliculas!!!!
Walrus Audio Bellwether Analog Delay Tech Demo
Walrus Audio Bellwether Analog Delay Tech Demo
Published: 2015/06/30
Channel: walrusaudioeffects
Lotus - Bellwether
Lotus - Bellwether
Published: 2009/02/23
Channel: PaintedSaint
Bellwether - In Memoriam (video)
Bellwether - In Memoriam (video)
Published: 2011/12/18
Channel: MeadowbrookRecords
Stolas - Bellwether Tutorial
Stolas - Bellwether Tutorial
Published: 2017/02/21
Channel: Mikerisms
Walrus Audio Bellwether (Delay) - Review (4K iana) resolutions fixed
Walrus Audio Bellwether (Delay) - Review (4K iana) resolutions fixed
Published: 2017/01/11
Channel: EytschPi42
Giraffe by Ben Lapps — Bellwether Sessions
Giraffe by Ben Lapps — Bellwether Sessions
Published: 2012/07/31
Channel: Bellwether Sessions
Rice a Roni Bellwether Phone Call
Rice a Roni Bellwether Phone Call
Published: 2017/06/06
Channel: Jason Goodman
Walrus Audio Bellwether Analog Delay
Walrus Audio Bellwether Analog Delay
Published: 2015/07/04
Channel: JustNickMusic
Review Demo - Walrus Audio Bellwether Delay
Review Demo - Walrus Audio Bellwether Delay
Published: 2015/09/14
Channel: Premier Guitar
Yonder - Bellwether
Yonder - Bellwether
Published: 2013/11/10
Channel: HearIndie
Disney ZOOTOPIA Play doh Surprise Eggs with Nick, Judy, Finnick, Bellwether Toys / TUYC
Disney ZOOTOPIA Play doh Surprise Eggs with Nick, Judy, Finnick, Bellwether Toys / TUYC
Published: 2016/03/03
Channel: Toys Unlimited
-Mighty Max- A Bellwether in One
-Mighty Max- A Bellwether in One's Cap (Series Premiere)
Published: 2011/01/02
Channel: irontusk341
Stolas - Bellwether (Stolas Album Release Tour 2017, ATL)
Stolas - Bellwether (Stolas Album Release Tour 2017, ATL)
Published: 2017/03/24
Channel: mrshamoozoo
Lotus - 02 - "Bellwether" @ All Good 2010
Lotus - 02 - "Bellwether" @ All Good 2010
Published: 2014/08/28
Channel: LotusVideos
Walrus Audio - Bellwether
Walrus Audio - Bellwether
Published: 2015/09/17
Channel: 60 Cycle Hum
Playing with the Walrus Audio Bellwether and Janus
Playing with the Walrus Audio Bellwether and Janus
Published: 2015/07/08
Channel: Misha Mansoor
Walrus Audio - Bellwether Delay FX Loop Session with Steve Goss
Walrus Audio - Bellwether Delay FX Loop Session with Steve Goss
Published: 2015/10/19
Channel: walrusaudioeffects
Fermenting Local Cheeses with Bellwether Farms | Episode 3 | Spoiled To Perfection
Fermenting Local Cheeses with Bellwether Farms | Episode 3 | Spoiled To Perfection
Published: 2015/12/29
Channel: Spoiled To Perfection
Vincero Collective Bellwether Collection
Vincero Collective Bellwether Collection
Published: 2017/07/26
Channel: Vincero Watches
Analog delay shootout - Boss DM3 | JHS Panther Cub | Walrus Audio Bellwether
Analog delay shootout - Boss DM3 | JHS Panther Cub | Walrus Audio Bellwether
Published: 2015/07/28
Channel: Livingroom Gear Demos
The Bellwether Syndicate - The Night Watch - Chicago House of Blues - Sept. 7th 2013
The Bellwether Syndicate - The Night Watch - Chicago House of Blues - Sept. 7th 2013
Published: 2013/09/09
Channel: Kattatonia76
dead to me [bellwether & judy] - [zootopia amv]
dead to me [bellwether & judy] - [zootopia amv]
Published: 2016/03/14
Channel: Peridot
Basketball by Ben Lapps — Bellwether Sessions
Basketball by Ben Lapps — Bellwether Sessions
Published: 2014/01/16
Channel: Bellwether Sessions
Bellwether 14X8 purpleheart and wenge snare
Bellwether 14X8 purpleheart and wenge snare
Published: 2016/05/08
Channel: Stavebuilder
Bellwether - Compromise
Bellwether - Compromise
Published: 2013/03/22
Channel: Bellwether The Band
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WIKIPEDIA ARTICLE

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A bellwether is one that leads or indicates trends; a trendsetter. This is an inversion of the original meaning as the bellwether, because of his emasculated condition, always stuck close to, usually following, the flock; his bell alerted the shepherd to its location. So originally the term referred to a reliable follower.

The term is derived from the Middle English bellewether and refers to the practice of placing a bell around the neck of a castrated ram (a wether) following the flock of sheep. The movements of the flock could be noted by hearing the bell when the flock was not in sight.

Politics[edit]

In politics, the term is more often applied in the passive sense to describe a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. In a Westminster-style election, for example, a constituency, the control of which tends frequently to change, can mirror in its popular vote the result on a national scale.

Australia[edit]

In Australian federal elections, the electoral division of Eden-Monaro in New South Wales elected its Member of Parliament from the party which won government at every federal election from 1972 until 2016, when the record was broken after Labor won the seat, while the Coalition won government. Following this, the Division of Robertson in NSW became the nation's new longest-running bellwether seat, continually won by party that also won government since the 1983 election. The Division of Lindsay in NSW, has elected its Member of Parliament from the party which won government in every Federal election since its creation in 1984. Both Lindsay and Eden-Monaro lost their bellwether status in the 2016 election, both electing Labor MPs, despite a narrow Coalition win nationwide. The Division of Makin in South Australia was a bellwether division from 1984 until 2010, although ceased its bellwether record in 2013, when Makin stayed Labor as the Coalition regained power nationwide. Also, in terms of nationwide two party preferred vote, Eden-Monaro, Lindsay, Robertson and Makin have bucked the bellwether trend in the past by voting Liberal at the 1998 federal election. In purely statistical terms, the state of New South Wales, which has the largest population of any Australian state or territory, could also be considered a "bellwether", as, until the 2016 federal election the party which wins government has won the majority of House of Representatives seats in that state at every election since 1963. Unlike many bellwethers, these are cited by analysts solely for their record and are not usually attributed to demographic factors that reflect the median of Australia.

Brazil[edit]

In Brazilian direct presidential elections, the states of Bahia and Rio Grande do Norte is where the winning candidate took the lead in the last-round election from 1945 to 2014.[1] Tocantins, since its creation in 1988, always had the winning presidential candidate winning the state lead in votes.

Canada[edit]

In the Canadian province of Ontario, Sarnia-Lambton (and its predecessor ridings) voted for the winning party in every federal election from 1963 until 2011. This streak was broken in 2015. St. Paul's has only elected three opposition MPs since it was created in 1935. Also in Ontario, Peterborough has been won by the party who has won the most seats overall in provincial elections since 1977. In Alberta, Peace River has elected only three opposition MLAs since the province was founded in 1905.

France[edit]

Map of bellwethers in France

Since the fifth republic president was elected by popular vote in 1965 up to 2017, five departments have always voted the chosen candidate in the second round: Ardeche, Calvados, Charente-Maritime, Indre-et-Loire and Loire. No region has done so.[2]

Germany[edit]

Since the creation of the Federal Republic of Germany (then West Germany) in 1949, the state where the leading party list vote (Zweitstimmen) matched the party of the subsequently chosen Chancellor more times is Schleswig-Holstein (with two misses: 1969 and 2005), followed by the state of Lower Saxony (with misses in 1949, 1969 and 2005). Both states lie in the North of the country, neither containing many large industrial cities (the biggest being Kiel and Hannover respectively), nor large rural catholic populations, the traditional base of SPD and CDU/CSU respectively. Schleswig Holstein is also famous for having had several state elections result in a one-seat majority for the winning coalition and Lower Saxony's 1998 election (in which Gerhard Schröder was the SPD candidate) is often seen as a "trial run" for the subsequent federal election (which Schröder also won). Both the 1949 and the 1969 elections were rather narrow, the former resulting in a one-vote majority in the election for chancellor and the latter resulting in a 12-seat majority that had broken down due to defections by 1972.

Ireland[edit]

Ireland has a proportional representation electoral system, in which politicians are elected by the single transferable vote. Bellwethers here can only be measured by the number of candidates from each side elected to Ireland's multiple-seat constituencies that elect an odd number of members. Between the 1981 general election and 2011 general election, Meath and its successors, Meath East and Meath West, have elected a majority of Fianna Fáil TDs in years when Fianna Fáil formed the government, and a majority of Fine Gael and Labour TDs when those parties formed the government.

New Zealand[edit]

In New Zealand, there are three generally accepted bellwether electorates: Hamilton East and Hamilton West, both based around the city of Hamilton,[3] and Northcote on Auckland's North Shore.[4] Hamilton West and Northcote have only missed one election each since they were first contested in 1969 and 1996 respectively — the 1993 election for Hamilton West and the 2005 election for Northcote. Hamilton East, first contested in 1972, has missed three elections — 1993, 1999, and 2005.

Philippines[edit]

In the Philippines, the winner of Philippine presidential election has won in Negros Oriental in all instances since 1935 except for 1961 and 2016, and in Basilan since its creation in December 1973. After Negros Oriental voted for the runner-up in 2016, Basilan's streak that started in 1978 is currently the nation's longest.

For vice presidential elections, Pangasinan has voted for the winner in all elections save for 1986 and 2016.

Portugal[edit]

In every general election to the National Assembly since the restoration of democracy the electoral district of Braga has voted for the party or coalition that has won the most seats in the election. (Note that following the elections of 2015, a minority government was eventually formed by the second-largest party in the Assembly.)

South Korea[edit]

Since the 1987 presidential election, the central province of North Chungcheong was the one in which the most voted candidate for the presidency was the national winner.

Spain[edit]

Since democracy was restored in 1977 up to 2015 elections, three provinces have always voted for the winning party (Teruel, Zaragoza and Huesca), as has the Autonomous Community of Aragon, where said provinces are located. Aragon is, moreover, the sole Autonomous Community to have done so.[5]

Sweden[edit]

The expression "Som Ljungby röstar röstar Sverige" ("As Ljungby votes, votes Sweden") was coined in the early 1970s, but more recently (2006) voting results in Karlstad, Kalmar and Halmstad more closely resembled the result of the whole nation in elections to the Riksdag.[6]

According to Statistics Sweden, election results in Karlstad have been closest to the national results for three consecutive elections, a fact often highlighted by media through Gallup Polls showing voting intentions in the area.[7][6]

United Kingdom[edit]

United Kingdom constituencies have been subject to frequent review since the late 1960s, particularly those of the House of Commons. Few constituencies are unchanged from one review to another. Therefore, true bellwethers are rare. However, it is possible to match new constituencies to old ones according to the destination of the bulk of the old electorate.

Long running bellwether constituencies

Former bellwether constituencies

Scottish Parliament[edit]

The constituencies of Cunninghame North, Stirling and Na h-Eileanan an Iar have all elected MSPs from the party which won the plurality of seats in the election overall for every Scottish Parliament election.

Also, the constituencies of Almond Valley, Dundee City West, Edinburgh Eastern, Glasgow Southside, Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley and Mid Fife and Glenrothes each elected an MSP from the largest party in the 2011 and 2016 elections. This continues the trend that their predecessor constituencies (Livingston, Dundee West, Edinburgh East & Musselburgh, Glasgow Govan, Kilmarnock & Loudoun and Fife Central) achieved in the 1999, 2003 and 2007 elections.

United States[edit]

States[edit]

The American bellwether states can be determined in different ways (with respect to presidential elections):

Highest percentage for varying lengths of time

  • Ohio – 2 misses (1944, 1960) from 1896 on (93.6%, slightly "too Republican"), perfect since 1964. Currently the longest perfect streak.
  • Florida – 2 misses (1960, 1992) from 1928 on (91.3%, slightly "too Republican").
  • Nevada – 3 misses (1908, 1976, 2016) from 1904 on (89.7%, slightly "too Democratic").
  • Missouri – 3 misses (1956, 2008, 2012) from 1904 on (89.7%, slightly "too Republican"). Was often referred to as the "Missouri bellwether" until 2012, when it voted for Mitt Romney. Donald Trump won Missouri in 2016 by as many as 19 points, which suggests it will likely be less of a bellwether state in future elections.
  • New Mexico – 3 misses (1976, 2000, 2016) from 1912 on (88.9%, slightly "too Democratic"). The state of New Mexico voted for the winner of the popular vote in both 2000 and 2016. Additionally these are the only misses in the history of the state of New Mexico since becoming part of the Union.
  • Tennessee – 3 misses (1960, 2008, 2012) from 1928 on (87.0%, slightly "too Republican"). The state has now gone Republican in thirteen of the last 17 elections.

Highest percentage for a set length of time

Electoral record of the states for presidential elections, 1896–2016[8]

  • Ohio : 29 wins out of 31 elections 93.5%
  • New Mexico : 24 wins out of 27 elections 88.8%
  • Illinois : 26 wins out of 31 elections 83.8%
  • Nevada : 26 wins out of 31 elections 83.8%

Smallest deviation from the national average

Another way to measure how much a state's results reflect the national average is how far the state deviates from the national results. The states with the least deviation from a two-party presidential vote from 1896 to 2012[9] include:

  • Ohio – 2.2%
  • New Mexico – 2.8%
  • Illinois – 3.6%
  • Missouri – 3.7%
  • Delaware – 3.7%

States that were considered bellwether states from the mid-to-late 20th century until the early 21st century include:

States that were bellwether states a very long time ago include:

In addition, the Territory of Guam has had no misses from 1984 to 2012 (100.0%). Guam has no electoral college votes, but conducts a straw vote on local election day. Also of note, from 1996 through 2012, Ohio has been within 1.85% of the national popular vote result.[13] Due to the Electoral College system, a bellwether of sufficient size is often also a focus of national attention and presidential campaigns as a so-called swing state that can decide the election one way or the other. As of 2016, Ohio and Florida are seen[by whom?] as the most important swing states and no Republican has won the presidency while losing Ohio and the controversial decision in Bush v. Gore ultimately hinged on a recount of Florida, that – had it gone for Gore – would have swung the Electoral College vote.

Counties[edit]

American bellwether counties include:

Stock market[edit]

In the stock market, a bellwether (barometer stock in the UK) is a stock that is believed to be a leading indicator of the direction of a sector, industry or market as a whole. Bellwether stocks are often used to determine the direction in which an industry or market is headed in the short term.[31] JPMorgan Chase is an example of a bellwether stock. As one of the major banks in the United States, it sets the tone for the rest of the industry. JPMorgan Chase also has contracts with companies in other industries, so its performance is reflected in other sectors of the market. Cognizant is similarly a bellwether for Technology stocks in the Indian markets BSE and NSE.

Sociology[edit]

In sociology, the term is applied in the active sense to a person or group of people who tend to create, influence, or set trends.

Business[edit]

Trends in expenditure in the UK advertising and marketing industry are monitored in the quarterly Bellwether Report, published by the Institute of Practitioners in Advertising (IPA).

See also[edit]

References[edit]

  1. ^ Brazilian presidential electoral maps at Wikimedia Commons
  2. ^ L'élection présidentielle
  3. ^ Ihaka, James (13 October 2008). "Eyes on tussle in bellwether seat". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 19 September 2011. 
  4. ^ Shepheard, Nicola (7 September 2008). "Street shows swing voters". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 19 September 2011. 
  5. ^ electionresources.org
  6. ^ a b "Som Karlstad röstar, röstar Sverige", Statistiska Centralbyrån, 6 March 2006. Retrieved 27 March 2017.
  7. ^ "Karlstad röstar som Sverige | Forskning & Framsteg | Populärvetenskapligt magasin". Fof.se. Retrieved 2012-03-24. 
  8. ^ Kondik, Kyle (2016). The Bellwether – Why Ohio Picks The President. Ohio University Press. p. 22. Political scientists have long regarded 1896 as a seminal, realigning election. 
  9. ^ Kondik, Kyle (2016). The Bellwether – Why Ohio Picks The President. Ohio University Press. p. 23. 
  10. ^ Sullivan, Robert David. "How Delaware Lost its Bellwether Mojo and Joined the Northeast Corridor". America Magazine. Retrieved 13 August 2016. 
  11. ^ Everson, David (February 1990). "Illinois as a bellwether: So what?". Retrieved 13 August 2016. 
  12. ^ Shesgreen, Deirdre (24 June 2012). "Missouri slips from political bellwether status this fall". USA Today. Retrieved 13 August 2016. 
  13. ^ Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections (see individual election result pages)
  14. ^ "Bellwether States and Counties". Uselectionatlas.org. Retrieved 2012-03-24. 
  15. ^ David Leip (2013). "Vigo County, IN Extends Bellwether Streak". Retrieved 2015-10-26. 
  16. ^ "Indiana County Is A Presidential Election Oracle". NPR. Retrieved 2012-03-24. 
  17. ^ Anonymous. "FINAL: VIGO COUNTY ELECTION 2008 RESULTS » Election 2008 » News From Terre Haute, Indiana". Tribstar.com. Retrieved 2012-03-24. 
  18. ^ Indiana Secretary of State. "2012 General Election". Retrieved November 7, 2012. 
  19. ^ a b c d Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections See individual state presidential results county maps. County maps available without a subscription from 1960 – present.
  20. ^ Ohio Secretary of State. "President Results by County Statewide". Retrieved November 10, 2012. 
  21. ^ "The Ohio county that picks presidents is leaning Trump". BBC. 2016-07-23. Retrieved 2016-07-23. 
  22. ^ Ohio Secretary of State. "President Results by County Statewide". Retrieved November 7, 2012. 
  23. ^ The Political Graveyard; Sargent County, North Dakota
  24. ^ ‘There Are No Bellwether Counties’
  25. ^ 1892 ‘Presidential Election of 1892’ (and subsequent elections’ maps)
  26. ^ Herdt, Timm (3 November 2012). "Ventura County voters are nearly flawless in picking presidential winners". Ventura County Star. Retrieved 13 August 2016. 
  27. ^ Handbook of Texas Online – Bexar County
  28. ^ Texas Secretary of State. "Office of the Secretary of State 2012 General Election Election Night Returns for BEXAR COUNTY". Retrieved November 7, 2012. 
  29. ^ Reinhard, Beth(June 23, 2012). The Cornerstone. National Journal. Retrieved June 24, 2012.
  30. ^ In Race to 270, It May Come Down to 106 Counties. Associated Press. Retrieved October 22, 2012.
  31. ^ http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bellwether-stock.asp

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