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In a referendum on 23 June 2016, 51.9% of the participating UK electorate voted to leave the EU, out of a turnout of 72.2%. On 29 March 2017, the UK government invoked Article 50 of the Treaty on the European Union. The UK is thus due to leave the EU on 29 March 2019.
Prime Minister Theresa May announced that the UK would not seek permanent membership of the single market or the customs union after leaving the EU and promised to repeal the European Communities Act of 1972 and incorporate existing European Union law into UK domestic law. A new government department, the Department for Exiting the European Union (DExEU), was created in July 2016, with Eurosceptic David Davis appointed its first Secretary of State. Negotiations with the EU officially started in June 2017.
The UK joined the European Communities (EC) in 1973, with membership confirmed by a referendum in 1975. In the 1970s and 1980s, withdrawal from the EC was advocated mainly by Labour Party members and trade union figures. From the 1990s, the main advocates of withdrawal were the newly founded UK Independence Party (UKIP) and an increasing number of Eurosceptic Conservative Party members.
There is strong agreement among economists and a broad consensus in existing economic research that Brexit is likely to reduce UK's real per-capita income in the medium- and long-term. Studies on effects that have already materialised since the referendum show annual losses of £404 for the average British household and a loss of 1.3% of UK GDP. Brexit is likely to reduce immigration from European Economic Area (EEA) countries to the UK, and poses challenges for UK higher education and academic research. The size of the "divorce bill", Britain's international agreements, relations with the Republic of Ireland, and the borders with France and between Gibraltar and Spain are uncertain. The precise impact on the UK depends on whether it would be a "hard" Brexit or a "soft" Brexit.
In 1951 the "Inner Six" European countries signed the Treaty of Paris establishing the European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC), followed shortly by the 1957 Treaties of rome establishing the European Economic Community (EEC) and the European Atomic Energy Community (Euratom). In 1967 these became known as the European Communities (EC). The UK applied to join in 1963 and 1967, but was vetoed by the French President, Charles de Gaulle. After de Gaulle relinquished the French presidency the UK successfully applied for membership and the Conservative prime minister Edward Heath signed the Treaty of Accession in 1972, Parliament passed the European Communities Act later in the year and the UK became a member of the EC on 1 January 1973 with Denmark and Ireland.
The opposition Labour Party contested the October 1974 general election with a commitment to renegotiate Britain's terms of membership of the EC and then hold a referendum on whether to remain in the EC on the new terms. After Labour won the election the United Kingdom held its first national referendum on whether the UK should remain in the European Communities in 1975. Despite significant division within the ruling Labour Party all major political parties and the mainstream press supported continuing membership of the EC. On 5 June 1975, 67.2% of the electorate and all but two UK counties and regions voted to stay in and support for the UK to leave the EC in 1975 appears unrelated to the support for Leave in the 2016 referendum.
The Labour Party campaigned in the 1983 general election on a commitment to withdraw from the EC without a referendum although after a heavy defeat Labour changed its policy. In 1985 the Thatcher government ratified the Single European Act—the first major revision to the Treaty of Rome—without a referendum.
In October 1990, under pressure from senior ministers and despite Margaret Thatcher's deep reservations, the United Kingdom joined the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM), with the pound sterling pegged to the deutschmark. Thatcher resigned as Prime Minister the following month, amid Conservative Party divisions arising partly from her increasingly Eurosceptic views. The United Kingdom and Italy were forced to withdraw from the ERM in September 1992, after the pound sterling and the lira came under pressure ("Black Wednesday").
In 1994 Sir James Goldsmith formed the Referendum Party to contest the 1997 general election on a platform of providing a referendum on the nature of the United Kingdom's relationship with the EU. It fielded candidates in 547 constituencies at that election, and won 810,860 votes or 2.6% of the total votes cast, although it failed to win a single parliamentary seat due to its vote being spread across the country. The Referendum Party disbanded after Goldsmith's death in 1997.
The UK Independence Party (UKIP), a Eurosceptic political party, was also formed in 1993. It achieved third place in the UK during the 2004 European elections, second place in the 2009 European elections and first place in the 2014 European elections, with 27.5% of the total vote. This was the first time since the 1910 general election that any party other than the Labour or Conservative parties had taken the largest share of the vote in a nationwide election. UKIP's electoral success in the 2014 European election has been documented as the strongest correlate of the support for the leave campaign in the 2016 referendum.
Since 1977 both pro- and anti-EU views have had majority support at different times. In the European Communities membership referendum of 1975, two-thirds of British voters favoured continued EC membership.
In a statistical analysis published in April 2016, Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University defined Euroscepticism as the wish to sever or reduce the powers of the EU, and conversely Europhilia as the desire to preserve or increase the powers of the EU. According to this definition, the British Social Attitudes (BSA) surveys show an increase in euroscepticism from 38% (1993) to 65% (2015). Euroscepticism should however not be confused with the wish to leave the EU: the BSA survey for the period July–November 2015 shows that 60% backed the option "continue as an EU member", and only 30% backed the option to "withdraw".
In 2012 Prime Minister David Cameron rejected calls for a referendum on the UK's EU membership, but suggested the possibility of a future referendum to gauge public support. According to the BBC, "The prime minister acknowledged the need to ensure the UK's position within the European Union had 'the full-hearted support of the British people' but they needed to show 'tactical and strategic patience'."
Under pressure from many of his MPs and from the rise of UKIP, in January 2013, Cameron announced that a Conservative government would hold an in–out referendum on EU membership before the end of 2017, on a renegotiated package, if elected in 2015.
The Conservative Party unexpectedly won the 2015 general election with a majority. Soon afterwards the European Union Referendum Act 2015 was introduced into Parliament to enable the referendum. Cameron favoured remaining in a reformed European Union, and sought to renegotiate on four key points: protection of the single market for non-eurozone countries, reduction of "red tape", exempting Britain from "ever-closer union", and restricting EU immigration.
In December 2015 opinion polls showed a clear majority in favour of remaining in the EU, although support would drop if David Cameron did not negotiate adequate safeguards for non-eurozone member states and restriction on benefits for EU citizens.
The outcome of the renegotiations was announced in February 2016. Some limits to in-work benefits for new EU immigrants were agreed, but before they could be applied, a country such as the UK would have to get permission from the European Commission and then from the European Council.
In a speech to the House of Commons on 22 February 2016, Cameron announced a referendum date of 23 June 2016, and commented on the renegotiation settlement. He spoke of an intention to trigger the Article 50 process immediately following a leave vote, and of the "two-year time period to negotiate the arrangements for exit."
The official campaign to stay in the EU, chaired by Stuart Rose, was known as Britain Stronger in Europe, or informally as Remain. Other campaigns supporting remaining in the EU included Conservatives In, Labour in for Britain, #INtogether (Liberal Democrats), Greens for a Better Europe, Scientists for EU, Environmentalists For Europe, Universities for Europe and Another Europe is Possible.
The result was announced on the morning of 24 June: 51.9% voted in favour of leaving the European Union, and 48.1% voted in favour of remaining a member of the European Union. Comprehensive results are available from the UK Electoral Commission Referendum Results site. A petition calling for a second referendum attracted more than four million signatures, but was rejected by the government on 9 July.
|United Kingdom European Union membership referendum, 2016
|Leave the European Union||17,410,742||51.89%|
|Remain a member of the European Union||16,141,241||48.11%|
|Invalid or blank votes||25,359||0.08%|
|Registered voters and turnout||46,500,001||72.21%|
|Voting age population and turnout||51,356,768||65.38%|
|Source: Electoral Commission|
After the result was declared, Cameron announced that he would resign by October. He stood down on 13 July 2016, with Theresa May becoming Prime Minister after a leadership contest. George Osborne was replaced as Chancellor of the Exchequer by Philip Hammond, former Mayor of London Boris Johnson was appointed Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs, and David Davis became Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn lost a vote of confidence among his parliamentary party, and an unsuccessful leadership challenge was launched. On 4 July Nigel Farage announced his resignation as leader of UKIP.
Outside the UK many Eurosceptic leaders celebrated the result and expected others to follow the UK's example. The right-wing Dutch populist Geert Wilders said that the Netherlands should follow Britain's example and hold a referendum on whether the Netherlands should stay in the European Union. However, opinion polls in the fortnight following the British referendum show that the immediate reaction in the Netherlands and other European countries was a decline in support for Eurosceptic movements.
According to London School of Economics economist Thomas Sampson, "Older and less-educated voters were more likely to vote "leave."... A majority of white voters wanted to leave, but only 33 percent of Asian voters and 27 percent of black voters chose leave. There was no gender split in the vote, with 52 percent of both men and women voting to leave. Interestingly, although Brexit has never received much backing from liberal or left-wing political leaders, leaving the European Union received support from across the political spectrum... Voting to leave the European Union was strongly associated with holding socially conservative political beliefs, opposing cosmopolitanism, and thinking life in Britain is getting worse rather than better." Econometric studies show "first, education and, to a lesser extent, age were the strongest demographic predictors of voting behavior... Second, poor economic outcomes at the individual or area level were associated with voting to leave... Third, support for leaving the European Union is strongly associated with self-reported opposition to immigration, but not with exposure to immigration."
Withdrawal from the European Union is governed by Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union. Under the Article 50 invocation procedure, a member notifies the European Council and there is a negotiation period of up to two years, after which the treaties cease to apply. Although terms of leaving may be agreed, aspects such as trade may be difficult to negotiate until the UK has left the EU.
Although the 2015 Referendum Act did not expressly require Article 50 to be invoked, the UK government stated that it would expect a leave vote to be followed by withdrawal despite government refusal to make contingency plans. Following the referendum result, Cameron resigned and said that it would be for the incoming Prime Minister to invoke Article 50.
The Supreme Court ruled in the Miller case in January 2017 that the government needed parliamentary approval to trigger Article 50. After the House of Commons overwhelmingly voted, on 1 February 2017, for the government's bill authorising the prime minister to invoke Article 50, the bill passed into law as the European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Act 2017. Theresa May signed the letter invoking Article 50 on 28 March 2017, which was delivered on 29 March by Tim Barrow, the UK's ambassador to the EU, to European Council President Donald Tusk.
It has been argued that the Article 50 withdrawal process may be halted unilaterally by the British government, with which opinion the author of Article 50 itself, Lord Kerr, has expressed agreement, but the EU Commission disputes this. The European Parliament's Brexit committee has noted that unilateral revocation, regardless of its legality, poses a substantial moral hazard, with EU member states potentially able to abuse it to blackmail the Union.
Both parties to the withdrawal negotiation are bound by Article 50 (3), which states explicitly that the EU treaties will cease to apply "from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after" the withdrawal notification unless the EU Council and UK agree to extend the two-year period.
On the EU side, the EU's Directives for the negotiation of an agreement notes that "The Agreement should set a withdrawal date which is at the latest 30 March 2019 at 00:00 (Brussels time)," —i.e. Central European Time— "unless the European Council, in agreement with the United Kingdom, unanimously decides to extend this period in accordance with Article 50(3) of the Treaty on European Union."
On the British side, originally the European Union (Withdrawal) Bill said that " 'exit day' means such day as a Minister of the Crown may by regulations appoint". If no time is specified, it is "the beginning of that day". However, after being amended in Committee Stage, the bill now says " 'exit day' means 29 March 2019 at 11.00 p.m", and "A Minister of the Crown may by regulations amend the definition of 'exit day' ".
The British and EU negotiators agreed that initial negotiations, relating especially to residency rights, would commence in June 2017 (immediately after the French presidential and parliamentary elections), and full negotiations, relating especially to trading agreements, could commence in October 2017 (immediately after the German federal election, 2017). The first day of talks was 19 June.
On 28 June 2016, Chancellor of Germany Angela Merkel, and on the following day European Council President Tusk, stated that the UK could remain in the European Single Market (ESM) only if the UK accepted its four freedoms of movement: for goods, capital, services, and labour. In October, Prime Minister Theresa May emphasised that ending the jurisdiction of EU law and free movement from Europe were the UK's priorities, along with British and EU companies having maximum freedom to trade in the UK and the ESM.
In November 2016 May proposed that Britain and the other EU countries mutually guarantee the residency rights of the 3.3 million EU immigrants in Britain and those of the 1.2 million British citizens living on the Continent, in order to exclude their fates being bargained during Brexit negotiations. Despite initial approval from a majority of EU states, May's proposal was blocked by Tusk and Merkel.
In January 2017 the Prime Minister presented 12 negotiating objectives and confirmed that the UK government would not seek permanent single market membership. The European Parliament's lead negotiator Guy Verhofstadt responded that there could be no "cherry-picking" by the UK in the talks.
The statutory period for negotiation began on 29 March 2017, when the UK formally submitted a letter notifying withdrawal. The letter called for a "deep and special relationship" between the UK and the EU, and warned that failure to reach an agreement would result in EU-UK trade under World Trade Organisation terms, and a weakening of the UK's co-operation in the fight against crime and terrorism. The letter suggested prioritising an early deal on the rights of EU citizens in the UK and vice-versa, and stated that the UK would not seek to remain within the ESM. Instead, the UK would seek a free trade agreement with the EU. In response, Merkel insisted that the EU would not discuss future co-operation without first settling the terms of leaving the EU; Verhofstadt referred to the letter as "blackmail" with regard to the point on security and terrorism, and EU Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker said the UK's decision to quit the block was a "choice they will regret one day".
On 29 April 2017, immediately after the first round of French presidential elections, the EU27 heads of state accepted negotiating guidelines prepared by Tusk. The guidelines take the view that Article 50 permits a two-phased negotiation, in which the UK first agrees to a financial commitment and to lifelong benefits for EU citizens in Britain, and then negotiations on a future relationship can begin. In the first phase, the EU27 would demand the UK pay a "divorce bill", initially estimated as amounting to £52bn and then, after additional financial demands from Germany, France, and Poland, to £92bn. A report of the European Union Committee of the House of Lords published on 4 March 2017 stated that, if there is no post-Brexit deal at the end of the negotiating period, the UK could withdraw without payment.
On 22 May 2017, the European Council authorised its negotiators to start the Brexit talks and it adopted its negotiating directives. The first day of talks took place on 19 June, where Davis and Barnier agreed to prioritise the question of residency rights, while Davis conceded that a discussion of the Northern Irish border would have to await future trade agreements.
On 22 June 2017, Prime Minister May guaranteed that no EU citizen living legally in the UK would be forced to leave, and offered that any EU citizen living in the UK for more than 5 years until an unspecified deadline between March 2017 and March 2019 would enjoy the same rights as a UK citizen, conditional on the EU providing the same offer to British expatriates living in the EU. The Prime Minister detailed her residency proposals on 26 June, but drew no concessions from EU negotiators, who had declined to expedite agreement on expatriates by the end of June 2017, and who are hoping for European courts to continue to have jurisdiction in the UK with regards to EU citizens, according to their negotiation aims published in May 2017.
The second round of negotiations began in mid-July 2017. Progress was made on the Northern Irish border question; UK negotiators requested a detailed breakdown of the "divorce bill" demand; and the EU negotiators criticised the UK's citizenship rights offer. David Davis did not commit to a net payment by the UK to the EU with regards to the requested divorce bill, while Michel Barnier would not compromise on his demand for the European Court of Justice to have continuing jurisdiction over the rights of EU citizens living in the UK after Brexit, rejecting the compromise proposal of a new international body made up of British and EU judges.
On 16 August 2017, the UK government disclosed the first of several papers detailing British ambitions following Brexit, discussing trade and customs arrangements. On 23 August, Theresa May announced that Britain will leave the EU Court of Justice's direct jurisdiction when the Brexit transition period that is planned after March 2019 ends, but that both the British courts and the EU Court of Justice will also keep "half an eye" on each other's rulings afterwards as well. One of the UK government's position papers published in August called for no additional restrictions for goods already on the market in the UK and EU.
The third round of negotiations began on 28 August 2017. There was disagreement over the financial settlement; The Irish Times explained that British negotiators referred to the seven-year Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF or Maff) for the period 2014-2020 agreed by member states and the EU parliament as a "planning tool" for the next period rather than a legally-binding financial obligation on member states. The British case is that the MFF sets ceilings on spending under various headings and is later radically revised during the annual budget process when real legal obligations on each state arises. This contrasts with the EU Commission's methodology for calculating the UK Brexit bill which involves dividing the MFF into the shares historically agreed by each member state. On the Irish border question there was a "breakthrough", with the British side guaranteeing free movement of EU citizens within the Common travel area constituting Ireland and the United Kingdom.
On 5 September 2017, Davis said that "concrete progress" had been made over the summer in areas such as protecting the rights of British expats in the EU to access healthcare and over the future of the Irish border, while significant differences over the "divorce bill" remained. On 9 September, the EU Commission published several negotiating papers, including one in which the EU concedes/declares that it is the responsibility of the UK to propose solutions for the post-Brexit Irish border. The paper envisages that a "unique" solution would be permissible here; in other words, any such exceptional Irish solution would not necessarily be a template for post-Brexit relationships with the other EU members.
On 22 September 2017, May announced further details of her Brexit proposal. In addition to offering 20 billion euros over a two-year transition period and continued acceptance of European immigrants, she also offered a "bold new security relationship" with the EU which would be "unprecedented in its depth" and to continue to make "an ongoing contribution" to projects considered greatly to the EU and UK's advantage, such as science and security projects. She also confirmed that the UK would not "stand in the way" of Juncker's proposals for further EU integration. Barnier welcomed May's proposal as "constructive," but that it also "must be translated into negotiating positions to make meaningful progress". Similarly, President of France Emmanuel Macron was adamant that the EU would not begin negotiations on future EU-UK relationships until "the regulation of European citizens, the financial terms of the exit, and the questions of Ireland" were "clarified" by the UK.
The fourth round of talks began on 25 September, with Barnier declaring he had no mandate from the EU27 to discuss a transition deal suggested by Prime Minister May. Davis reiterated that the UK could honour commitments made during its EU membership only in the context of a future "special partnership" deal with the EU.
At the European Council meeting of 19/20 October 2017, the 27 leaders of the EU states were to decide whether or not to start trade negotiations with the UK. However, Davis has conceded that so soon after the German elections on 24 September, a German coalition government may not be in place in time for making this decision in October, delaying any European Council decision until their December meeting.
EU negotiators have stated that an agreement must be reached between Britain and the EU by October 2018 in order to leave time for national parliaments to endorse Brexit.
On 9 October 2017, May announced to the British Parliament that Britain could operate as an "independent trading nation" after Brexit if no trade deal is reached with the EU.
In December 2017, EU leaders announced an agreement to begin the next phase of negotiations, with talks on a transition period after March 2019 to begin in early 2018 and discussions on the future UK-EU relationship, including trade and security, to begin in March.
In October 2016, Theresa May promised a "Great Repeal Bill", which would repeal the European Communities Act 1972 and restate in UK law all enactments previously in force under EU law. Subsequently renamed the European Union (Withdrawal) bill, it was introduced to the House of Commons on 13 July 2017. The bill will not come into force until the date of exit, and aims to smooth the transition by ensuring that all laws remain in force until specifically repealed. The bill has raised constitutional issues regarding the devolution settlements with the UK nations, particularly in Scotland.
On 12 September, the bill passed its first vote and second reading by a margin of 326 votes to 290 votes in the House of Commons.
A report published in March 2017 by the Institute for Government commented that, in addition to the European Union (Withdrawal) bill, primary and secondary legislation will be needed to cover the gaps in policy areas such as customs, immigration and agriculture. The report also commented that the role of the devolved legislatures was unclear, and could cause problems, and as many as fifteen new additional Brexit Bills may be required, which would involve strict prioritisation and limiting Parliamentary time for in-depth examination of new legislation.
In 2016 and 2017, the House of Lords published a series of reports on Brexit-related subjects, including:
Replying to questions at a parliamentary committee about Parliament's involvement in voting on the outcome of the negotiations with the EU, the Prime Minister said that "delivering on the vote of the British people to leave the European Union" was her priority. The shadow Brexit secretary, Keir Starmer, commented that the government did not want a vote at the beginning of the process, to trigger Article 50, nor a vote at the end.
The Department for Exiting the European Union (DExEU) produced reports on the economic impact on 58 industries of Britain leaving the EU. The Labour Party made a freedom of information request for details about the reports, but DExEU said that publishing the information would undermine policy formulation, and that it needed to carry out policymaking in a "safe space". Labour then proposed a motion of a rarely-used type known as a "humble address" in the Commons on 1 November 2017, calling for the papers to be released; the motion was passed unanimously. The leader of the house, Andrea Leadsom, said that there could be some delay while ministers decided how to release the information without prejudicing Brexit negotiations.
Immigration was cited as the second-most important reason for those voting to Leave. KPMG, based on a survey of 2,000 EU workers in UK, estimates that about a million EU citizens working in the UK, see their future in Britain as over or hanging in the balance.
A 2017 paper by King's College London economists Giuseppe Forte and Jonathan Portes found that "while future migration flows will be driven by a number of factors, macroeconomic and otherwise, Brexit and the end of free movement will result in a large fall in immigration from EEA countries to the UK." According to a 2016 study by Portes, "The spectrum of options for UK immigration policy postBrexit remains wide... However, almost any plausible outcome will result in an increase in regulatory burdens on business; a reduction in the flows of both unskilled and skilled workers; and an increase in illegal working. The key question for policymakers will be how to minimise these negative impacts while at the same time addressing domestic political demands for increased control without antagonising our EU partners to the point of prejudicing other key aspects of the negotiations. This will not be an easy task." Will Somerville of the Migration Policy Institute wrote that "Future migration levels are impossible to predict in the absence of policy and economic certainty", but estimated immediately after the referendum that the UK "would continue to receive 500,000 or more immigrants (from EU and non-EU countries taken together) per year, with annual net migration around 200,000".
The decline in EEA immigration is likely to have an adverse impact on the British health sector. According to the New York Times, Brexit "seems certain" to make it harder and costlier for the N.H.S., which already suffers from chronic understaffing, to recruit nurses, midwives and doctors from the rest of Europe.
Official figures in March 2017 indicated that EU immigration to the UK continued to exceed emigration, but the difference between immigration and emigration ("net migration") had fallen to its lowest for three years. The number of EU nurses registering with the NHS fell from 1,304 in July 2016 to 46 in April 2017.
There is overwhelming or near-unanimous agreement among economists that leaving the European Union will adversely affect the British economy in the medium- and long-term.[excessive citations] Surveys of economists in 2016 showed overwhelming agreement that Brexit would likely reduce the UK's real per-capita income level. A 2017 survey of the existing academic literature found "the research literature displays a broad consensus that in the long run Brexit will make the United Kingdom poorer because it will create new barriers to trade, foreign direct investment, and immigration. However, there is substantial uncertainty over how large the effect will be, with plausible estimates of the cost ranging between 1 and 10 percent of the UK's income per capita." These estimates differ depending on whether the UK stays in the European Single Market (for instance, by joining the EEA), makes a free trade agreement with the EU, or reverts to the trade rules that govern relations between all World Trade Organization members. In January 2018, the UK government's own Brexit analysis was leaked; it showed that UK economic growth would be stunted by 2%-8% for at least 15 years following secession from the EU, depending on the leave scenario.
Most economists, including the UK Treasury, argue that being in the EU has a strong positive effect on trade and as a result the UK's trade would be worse off if it left the EU. According to a group of University of Cambridge economists, under a "hard Brexit" whereby the UK reverts to WTO rules, one-third of UK exports to the EU would be tariff-free, one-quarter would face high trade barriers and other exports risk tariffs in the range of 1-10%. A 2017 study based on data from 2010 found that "almost all UK regions are systematically more vulnerable to Brexit than regions in any other country. Due to their longstanding trade integration with the UK, Irish regions have levels of Brexit exposure, which are similar to those of the UK regions with the lowest levels of exposure, namely London and northern parts of Scotland. Meanwhile, the other most risk-exposed EU regions are all in southern Germany, with levels of risk which are typically half that of any UK or Irish region, and one third of that displayed by many UK regions. There is also a very noticeable economic geography logic to the levels of exposure with north-western European regions typically being the most exposed to Brexit, while regions in southern and eastern Europe are barely affected at all by Brexit, at least in terms of the trade linkages... Overall, the UK is far more exposed to Brexit risks than the rest of the EU."
After the referendum, the Institute for Fiscal Studies published a report funded by the Economic and Social Research Council which warned that Britain would lose up to £70 billion in reduced economic growth if it did not retain Single Market membership, with new trade deals unable to make up the difference. One of these areas is financial services, which are helped by EU-wide "passporting" for financial products, which an Oliver Wyman report for a pro-EU lobby group estimated indirectly accounted for up to 71,000 jobs and £10 billion of tax annually,[not in citation given] and some banks announced plans to relocate some of their operations outside the UK. According to a 2016 article by John Armour, Professor of Law and Finance at Oxford University, "a 'soft' Brexit, whereby the UK leaves the EU but remains in the single market, would be a lower-risk option for the City than other Brexit options, because it would enable financial services firms to continue to rely on regulatory passporting rights."
A 2017 study found, on the basis of "plausible, empirically based estimates of the likely impacts on growth and wages using relationships from the existing empirical literature", that "Brexit-induced reductions in migration are likely to have a significant negative impact on UK GDP per capita (and GDP), with marginal positive impacts on wages in the low-skill service sector." It is unclear how changes in trade and foreign investment will interact with immigration, but these changes are likely to be important.
Former Governor of the Bank of England Mervyn King commented that warnings of economic doom regarding leaving the EU were overstated and that the UK should leave the single market and probably the customs union in order to gain more opportunities, which would lead to improved British economic performance.
Research on the effects that have already materialised in the United Kingdom since the referendum results show that the referendum result pushed up UK inflation by 1.7 percentage points, leading to an annual cost of £404 for the average British household. Another study on the effects that have already materialised found "contrary to public perception, by the third quarter of 2017 the economic costs of the Brexit vote are already 1.3% of GDP. The cumulative costs amount to almost 20 billion pounds and are expected to grow to more than 60 billion pounds by end-2018." According to a Financial Times analysis, the Brexit referendum results had by December 2017 reduced national British income by between 0.6% and 1.3%, which amounts to almost £350 million a week. University of California, Berkeley, economist Barry Eichengreen noted in August 2017 that some of the adverse effects of uncertainty brought about by the Brexit referendum were being made apparent, as British consumer confidence was down and spending had declined to its lowest level in four years. In November 2017, it was reported that European banks had reduced their UK-related assets by €350bn in the 12 months after Brexit vote, and that the trend was expected to increase ahead of the March 2019 Brexit deadline.
Short-term macroeconomic forecasts by the Bank of England and other banks of what would happen immediately after the Brexit referendum proved to be too pessimistic. The assessments assumed that the referendum results would create greater uncertainty on financial markets and in business and reduce consumer confidence more than it did. According to Oxford University economist Simon Wren-Lewis, "short term unconditional macroeconomic forecasts are extremely unreliable" and they are something that academic economists do not do, unlike banks. Wren-Lewis notes that long-term projections of the impact of Brexit, on the other hand, have a strong empirical foundation. University of California, Berkeley, economist Barry Eichengreen wrote that economists "have had little success at reliably predicting when and why uncertainty arises" and that it is unclear how severe the impact of uncertainty actually is. King's College London economist Jonathan Portes said that "short-term economic forecasting is very unreliable", and compared short-term economic forecasts to weather forecasts and the long-term economic forecasts to climate forecasts: the methodologies used in long-term forecasts are "well-established and robust". Other economists note that central bank forecasts are not intended for pinpoint accuracy. London School of Economics economist Thomas Sampson notes that it is harder to assess the short-term impact that the transition process to Brexit will have, but that long-term assessments of the post-Brexit period are more reliable. According to the Financial Times, economists are in agreement that the short-term effects are uncertain.
On 5 January 2017 Andy Haldane, the Chief Economist and the Executive Director of Monetary Analysis and Statistics at the Bank of England, said that the BoE's own forecast predicting an immediate economic downturn due to the referendum result was inaccurate and noted strong market performance immediately after the referendum, although some have pointed to prices rising faster than wages. Haldane said that the field of economics was "to some degree in crisis" because of its failure to predict the financial crisis of 2007–2008, and added that the Brexit economic forecast was only inaccurate in its near-term assessment, and that over time, the Bank still expected that Brexit would harm economic growth. Imperial College London economist David Miles responded to Haldane, saying that there was no crisis in economics, and that economists did not purport to be able to forecast with full certainty or predict the precise timing of events. Miles said that it was widely acknowledged among economists that short-term forecasts, such as the BoE's, are unreliable.
Brexit requires relocating the offices and staff of the European Medicines Agency and European Banking Authority, currently based in London. The agencies together employ more than 1,000 people and will respectively relocate to Amsterdam and Paris. The EU is also considering restricting the clearing of euro-denominated trades to eurozone jurisdictions, which would end London's dominance in this sector.
According to a 2016 study by Ken Mayhew, Emeritus Professor of Education and Economic Performance at Oxford University, Brexit poses the following threats to higher education: "loss of research funding from EU sources; loss of students from other EU countries; the impact on the ability of the sector to hire academic staff from EU countries; and the impact on the ability of UK students to study abroad."
The UK received more from the EU for research than it contributed with universities getting just over 10% of their research income from the EU. All funding for net beneficiaries from the EU, including universities, was guaranteed by the government in August 2016. Before the funding announcement, a newspaper investigation reported that some research projects were reluctant to include British researchers due to uncertainties over funding. Currently the UK is part of the European Research Area and the UK is likely to wish to remain an associated member.
As predicted before the referendum, the Scottish Government announced that officials were planning a second independence referendum on the day after the UK as a whole voted to leave, while Scotland voted to stay. In March 2017, the SNP leader and First Minister Nicola Sturgeon requested a second Scottish independence referendum in 2018 or 2019 (before Britain's formal exit from the EU). The UK Prime Minister immediately rejected the requested timing, but not the referendum itself. The referendum was approved by the Scottish Parliament on 28 March 2017. Sturgeon called for a "phased return" of an independent Scotland back to the EU.
The Financial Times said that there were approximately 759 international agreements, spanning 168 non-EU countries, that the UK would no longer be a party to upon leaving the EU. This figure does not include World Trade Organisation or United Nations opt-in accords, and excludes "narrow agreements", which may also have to be renegotiated.
The UK's post-Brexit relationship with the remaining EU members could take several forms. A research paper presented to the UK Parliament in July 2013 proposed a number of alternatives to membership which would continue to allow access to the EU internal market. These include remaining in the European Economic Area, negotiating deep bilateral agreements on the Swiss model, or exit from the EU without EEA membership or a trade agreement under the WTO Option. There may be an interim deal between the time the UK leaves the EU and when the final relationship comes in force.
There is still great uncertainty in relation to a "hard border" between the Republic and Northern Ireland. At present (November 2017) as both the UK and the Republic of Ireland are members of the EU, and so are in both the Customs Union and the Single Market, and there is freedom of movement for all EU nationals within the Common Travel Area, no checks of any kind take place at the border. Consequently, the border is largely invisible. Following Brexit the border between N. Ireland and the Republic of Ireland will become a land border between the EU and a non-EU state. It is therefore possible that the border will return to being a "hard" one, with fewer, controlled, crossing posts and a customs infrastructure. This would be a return to the position before the EU with the additional point that unless the Free Travel Area is maintained passport checks may be required in addition. This outcome, or one like it, is referred to as a "Hard Border" and both the EU and the UK have agreed this would be a poor outcome to be avoided if possible. Creating a border control system between Ireland and Northern Ireland could jeopardise the Good Friday Agreement established in 1998.
When in 1922 the Irish Free State seceded from the United Kingdom, the border between the Free State territory and the part of Ireland that chose to remain in the UK (and was designated N. Ireland) became an international frontier. This event became commonly known as the "partition of Ireland". Trade in goods and services across this frontier became subject to differing tax and tariff arrangements. Consequently, an infrastructure of Customs posts was put in place at designated crossing areas. All traffic was subject to inspection by the jurisdiction it was passing in to. This could entail full vehicle searches with consequent delay and inconvenience. However passport checks were not required. The Republic of Ireland, Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom were part of the Common Travel Area, This allowed travel between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, and between the Island of Ireland and Great Britain without passport controls. The Isle of Man and the Channel Isles are also part of the area. This arrangement came into existence in 1922 with the establishment of the Irish Free State and so predated the freedom of travel provisions consequent on membership of the EU, which to some degree superseded it. According to statements by Theresa May and Enda Kenny, it is intended to maintain this arrangement after the United Kingdom leaves the EU. After Brexit, in order to control migration by EU citizens (other than Irish nationals) across the open Northern Irish land border into the United Kingdom, the UK and Irish governments suggested in October 2016 an outline plan entailing British immigration controls being applied to Irish ports and airports. This would avoid passport checks being required between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. However, this agreement was never finalised and was met by opposition from political parties in the Republic of Ireland, On 23 March 2017, it was confirmed that British immigration officials would not be allowed to use Irish ports and airports in order to combat immigration concerns following Brexit.
A referendum for the reunification of Ireland was suggested by Sinn Féin leader Martin McGuinness immediately after the UK EU referendum results were announced. In April 2017 the European Council agreed that, in the event of Irish reunification, Northern Ireland would rejoin the EU.
The President of the Regional Council of Hauts-de-France, Xavier Bertrand, stated in February 2016 that "If Britain leaves Europe, right away the border will leave Calais and go to Dover. We will not continue to guard the border for Britain if it's no longer in the European Union," indicating that the juxtaposed controls would end with a leave vote. French Finance Minister Emmanuel Macron also suggested the agreement would be "threatened" by a leave vote. These claims have been disputed, as the Le Touquet 2003 treaty enabling juxtaposed controls was not an EU treaty, and would not be legally void upon leaving.
After the Brexit vote, Xavier Bertrand asked François Hollande to renegotiate the Touquet agreement, which can be terminated by either party with two years' notice. Hollande rejected the suggestion, and said: "Calling into question the Touquet deal on the pretext that Britain has voted for Brexit and will have to start negotiations to leave the Union doesn't make sense." Bernard Cazeneuve, the French Interior Minister, confirmed there would be "no changes to the accord". He said: "The border at Calais is closed and will remain so."
Gibraltar is outside the European Union's common customs area and common commercial policy and so has a customs border with Spain. Nevertheless, the territory remains within the European Union until Brexit is complete.
During the campaign leading up to the referendum the Chief Minister of Gibraltar warned that Brexit posed a threat to Gibraltar's safety. Gibraltar overwhelmingly voted to remain in the EU. After the result Spain's Foreign Minister renewed calls for joint Spanish–British control of the peninsula. These calls were strongly rebuffed by Gibraltar's Chief Minister and questions were raised over the future of free-flowing traffic at the Gibraltar–Spain border. The UK government states it will only negotiate on the sovereignty of Gibraltar with the consent of its people, but Spain, like each of the EU members, effectively has veto power over the Brexit agreement.
In February 2018, Sir Joe Bossano, Gibraltar's Minister for Enterprise, Training, Employment and Health and Safety (and former Chief Minister) expressed frustration at the EU's attitude, suggesting that Spain was being offered a veto, adding "It's enough to convert me from a supporter of the European Union into a Brexiteer".
Brexit has also created a resurgence in academic and political advocacy for negotiating trade and migration agreements with the "CANZUK" countries - those of Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the United Kingdom. This has been echoed by multiple politicians in the four countries, including Liberal Senator, James Paterson in Australia, Shadow Foreign Affairs Minister, Erin O'Toole in Canada and Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs, Boris Johnson in the United Kingdom. Organisations such as CANZUK International have also championed the movement, stating that relationships between the four countries will flourish after Brexit. However, numerous academics have criticised this alternative for EU membership as "post-imperial nostalgia".
Shortly after the referendum, the German parliament published an analysis on the consequences of a Brexit on the EU and specifically on the economic and political situation of Germany. According to this, Britain is, after the United States and France, the third-most important export market for German products. In total Germany exports goods and services to Britain worth about €120 billion annually, which is about 8% of German exports, with Germany achieving a trade surplus with Britain worth €36.3 billion (2014). Should there be a "hard Brexit", exports would be subject to WTO customs and tariffs. The trade weighted average tariff is 2.4%, but the tariff on automobiles, for instance, is 9.7%, so trade in automobiles would be particularly affected; this would also affect German automobile manufacturers with production plants in the United Kingdom. In total, 750,000 jobs in Germany depend upon export to Britain, while on the British side about three million jobs depend on export to the EU. The study emphasises however that the predictions on the economic effects of a Brexit are subject to significant uncertainty.
According to the Lisbon Treaty (2009), Council of the EU decisions made by qualified majority voting can only be blocked if at least four members of the Council form a blocking minority. This rule was originally developed to prevent the three most populous members (Germany, France, Britain) from dominating the Council of the EU. However, after a Brexit of the economically liberal British, the Germans and like-minded northern European countries (the Irish, Dutch, Scandinavians and Baltic states) would lose an ally and therefore also their blocking minority. Without this blocking minority, other EU states could overrule Germany and its allies in questions of EU budget discipline or the recruitment of German banks to guarantee deposits in troubled southern European banks.
With Brexit, the EU would lose its second-largest economy, the country with the third-largest population and "the financial capital of the world", as the German newspaper Münchner Merkur put it. Furthermore, the EU would lose its second-largest net contributor to the EU budget (2015: Germany €14.3 billion, United Kingdom €11.5 billion, France €5.5 billion).
Thus, the departure of Britain would result in an additional financial burden for the remaining net contributors, unless the budget is reduced accordingly: Germany, for example, would have to pay an additional €4.5 billion for 2019 and again for 2020; in addition, the UK would no longer be a shareholder in the European Investment Bank, in which only EU members can participate. Britain's share amounts to 16%, €39.2 billion (2013), which Britain would withdraw unless there is an EU treaty change.
The departure of the UK is expected to have a major effect on the EU. In many policy votes Britain had allied with the relatively more economically liberal Germany who together with other northern EU allies had a blocking minority of 35% in the Council of the European Union. The exit of the UK from the European Union means that this blocking minority can no longer be assembled leading to speculation that it could enable the other EU countries to enforce specific proposals such as relaxing EU budget discipline or providing EU-wide deposit guarantees within the banking union.
UK MEPs are expected to retain full rights to participate in the European Parliament up to the Article 50 deadline. However, there have been discussions about excluding UK MEPs from key committee positions.
The EU will need to decide on the revised apportionment of seats in the European Parliament in time for the next European Parliament election, expected to be held in June 2019, when the United Kingdom's 73 MEPs will have vacated their seats. In April 2017, a group of European lawmakers discussed what should be done about the vacated seats. One plan, supported by Gianni Pittella and Emmanuel Macron, is to replace the 73 seats with a pan-European constituency list; other options which were considered include dropping the British seats without replacement, and reassigning some or all of the existing seats from other countries to reduce inequality of representation.
The UK's exit from the European Union will leave the Republic of Ireland and Cyprus as the only two remaining common law jurisdictions in the EU. Paul Gallagher, a former Attorney General of Ireland, has suggested this will isolate those countries and deprive them of a powerful partner that shared a common interest in ensuring that EU legislation was not drafted or interpreted in a way that would be contrary to the principles of the common law. Lucinda Creighton, a former Irish government minister for legal affairs, has said that Ireland relies on the "bureaucratic capacity of the UK" to understand, influence and implement EU legislation.
The combined EU fishing fleets land about 6 million tonnes of fish per year, of which about 3 million tonnes are from UK waters. The UK's share of the overall EU fishing catch is only 750,000 tonnes (830,000 tons). This proportion is determined by the London Fisheries Convention of 1964 and by the EU's Common Fisheries Policy. The UK government announced in July 2017 that it would end the 1964 convention in 2019. Loss of access to UK waters will particularly affect the Irish fishing industry which obtains a third of its catch there. The Common Fisheries Policy gives access for any member country to the waters of any other member country. The policy is generally considered a disadvantage to fish-rich countries and is a major reason why Norway and Iceland are not members. The European Economic Area treaty gives access to the inner market but does not include fishing.
Questions have arisen over how existing international arrangements with the EU under World Trade Organisation terms should evolve. Some countries – such as Australia and the United States – wish to challenge the basis for division (i.e., division between the UK and the continuing EU) of the trade schedules previously agreed between them and the EU, because it reduces their flexibility.
As of 2018[update], the WTO does not have any protocols covering trade in services.
Various EU leaders said that they would not start any negotiation before the UK formally invokes Article 50. Jean-Claude Juncker ordered all members of the EU Commission not to engage in any kind of contact with UK parties regarding Brexit. In October 2016, he stated that he was agitated that the British had not developed a sense of community with Europeans during 40 years of membership; Juncker denied that Brexit was a warning for the EU, envisaged developing an EU defence policy without the British after Brexit, and rejected a suggestion that the EU should negotiate in such a way that Britain would be able to hold a second referendum. On 5 November 2016, Juncker reacted to reports of some European businesses seeking to make agreements with the UK government, and warned: "I am telling them [companies] that they should not interfere in the debate, as they will find that I will block their path." Juncker stated in February 2017 that the UK would be expected to pay outstanding commitments to EU projects and pensions as part of the withdrawal process, suggesting such bills would be "very hefty."
German foreign secretary Frank-Walter Steinmeier met Britain's foreign secretary Boris Johnson on 4 November 2016; Johnson stressed the importance of British-German relationships, whereas Steinmeier responded that the German view was that the UK should have voted to stay in the EU and that the German priority now was to preserve the remaining union of 27 members. There could be no negotiations before the UK formally gives notice. A long delay before beginning negotiations would be detrimental. Britain could not keep the advantages of the single market but at the same time cancel the "less pleasant rules".
Newly appointed prime minister Theresa May made clear that negotiations with the EU required a "UK-wide approach". On 15 July 2016, she said: "I have already said that I won't be triggering article 50 until I think that we have a UK approach and objectives for negotiations – I think it is important that we establish that before we trigger article 50."
According to The Daily Telegraph, the Department for Exiting the European Union spent over £250,000 on legal advice from top Government lawyers in two months, and had plans to recruit more people. Nick Clegg said the figures showed the Civil Service was unprepared for the very complex negotiations ahead.
In the wake of the United Kingdom's vote to leave the European Union, the Department for International Trade (DIT) for striking and extending trade agreements between the UK and non-EU states was created by Prime Minister Theresa May, shortly after she took office on 13 July 2016. It employs about 200 trade negotiators and is overseen by the Secretary of State for International Trade, currently Liam Fox.
On 17 January 2017, Prime Minister Theresa May, announced a series of 12 negotiating objectives in a speech at Lancaster House. These consist of an end to European Court of Justice jurisdiction, withdrawal from the single market with a "comprehensive free-trade agreement" replacing this, a new customs agreement excluding the common external tariff and common commercial policy, an end to free movement of people, co-operation in crime and terrorism, collaboration in areas of science and technology, engagement with devolved administrations, maintaining the Common Travel Area with Ireland, and preserving existing workers' rights.
The Government has stated its intention to "secure the specific interests of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, as well as those of all parts of England". Through the Joint Ministerial Committee on EU Negotiations (JMC(EN)), the Government intends to involve the views of the Scottish Parliament, the Welsh Assembly and the Northern Ireland Assembly in the process of negotiating the UK's exit from the EU. For instance, at the January 2017 meeting of the JMC(EN), the Scottish Government's proposal to remain in the European Economic Area was considered.
EU negotiator Guy Verhofstadt, the European parliament's chief negotiator has said that: "All British citizens today have also EU citizenship. That means a number of things: the possibility to participate in the European elections, the freedom of travel without problem inside the union. We need to have an arrangement in which this arrangement can continue for those citizens who on an individual basis are requesting it." The suggestion being an “associate citizenship”.
An EU meeting to discuss Brexit has been called for 29 April, Donald Tusk stating that the "priority would be giving "clarity" to EU residents, business and member states about the talks ahead". Michel Barnier, European Chief Negotiator for Brexit, has called for talks to be completed by October 2018 to give time for any agreement to be ratified before the UK leaves in March 2019.
Sinn Féin has called for a referendum to create a united Ireland, following the Northern Ireland majority decision (56% to 44%) to vote no to Brexit and 2 March election to the Northern Ireland Assembly wherein Sinn Féin increased its number of seats.
In early May, Jean-Claude Juncker said that the UK leaving the EU was a "tragedy" and that it is partly the responsibility of the EU. "The EU, in many respects has done too much, especially the Commission", including "too much regulation and too many interferences in the lives of our fellow citizens". The European Commission has, following the "Better regulation" initiative, in place since before Brexit, reduced the number of legislative proposals from 130 to 23 per year.
Following the EU referendum, there have been several opinion polls on the question of whether the UK was "right" or "wrong" to vote to leave the EU. The results of these polls are shown in the table below.
|Date(s) conducted||Right||Wrong||Undecided||Lead||Sample||Conducted by||Polling type||Notes|
|5-6 Mar 2018||43%||45%||12%||2%||1,641||YouGov||Online|
|2 Mar 2018||Theresa May makes Mansion House speech, outlining the UK Government's policy on the future UK-EU relationship.|
|26-27 Feb 2018||44%||45%||11%||1%||1,622||YouGov||Online|
|19-20 Feb 2018||42%||45%||12%||3%||1,650||YouGov||Online|
|12-13 Feb 2018||42%||46%||12%||4%||1,639||YouGov||Online|
|5-6 Feb 2018||43%||44%||13%||1%||2,000||YouGov||Online|
|28-29 Jan 2018||40%||46%||14%||6%||1,669||YouGov||Online|
|16-17 Jan 2018||45%||44%||12%||1%||1,672||YouGov||Online|
|7-8 Jan 2018||42%||46%||12%||4%||1,663||YouGov||Online|
|19-20 Dec 2017||42%||45%||12%||3%||1,610||YouGov||Online|
|15 Dec 2017||The European Council decides to proceed to the second phase of the Brexit negotiations.|
|10-11 Dec 2017||44%||45%||11%||1%||1,680||YouGov||Online|
|4-5 Dec 2017||42%||45%||13%||3%||1,638||YouGov||Online|
|7-8 Nov 2017||42%||46%||12%||4%||2,012||YouGov||Online|
|23-24 Oct 2017||43%||45%||12%||2%||1,637||YouGov||Online|
|18-19 Oct 2017||42%||45%||14%||3%||1,648||YouGov||Online|
|10-11 Oct 2017||42%||47%||11%||5%||1,680||YouGov||Online|
|22-24 Sep 2017||44%||45%||11%||1%||1,716||YouGov||Online|
|22 Sep 2017||Theresa May makes Florence speech, in an attempt to 'unblock' the Brexit negotiations.|
|30-31 Aug 2017||44%||44%||12%||0%||1,658||YouGov||Online|
|21-22 Aug 2017||43%||45%||11%||2%||1,664||YouGov||Online|
|31 Jul-1 Aug 2017||45%||45%||10%||0%||1,665||YouGov||Online|
|18-19 Jul 2017||43%||43%||14%||0%||1,593||YouGov||Online|
|10-11 Jul 2017||45%||43%||12%||2%||1,700||YouGov||Online|
|21-22 Jun 2017||44%||45%||11%||1%||1,670||YouGov||Online|
|19 Jun 2017||Brexit negotiations begin.|
|12-13 Jun 2017||44%||45%||11%||1%||1,651||YouGov||Online|
|8 Jun 2017||United Kingdom general election, 2017|
|5-7 Jun 2017||45%||45%||10%||0%||2,130||YouGov||Online|
|30-31 May 2017||44%||45%||11%||1%||1,875||YouGov||Online|
|24-25 May 2017||46%||43%||11%||3%||2,052||YouGov||Online|
|16-17 May 2017||46%||43%||11%||3%||1,861||YouGov||Online|
|3-14 May 2017||45%||41%||14%||4%||1,952||GfK||Online|
|9-10 May 2017||44%||45%||11%||1%||1,651||YouGov||Online|
|2-3 May 2017||46%||43%||11%||3%||2,066||YouGov||Online|
|25-26 Apr 2017||43%||45%||12%||2%||1,590||YouGov||Online|
|20-21 Apr 2017||44%||44%||12%||0%||1,590||YouGov||Online|
|18-19 Apr 2017||46%||43%||11%||3%||1,727||YouGov||Online|
|12-13 Apr 2017||45%||43%||12%||2%||2,069||YouGov||Online|
|5-6 Apr 2017||46%||42%||11%||4%||1,651||YouGov||Online|
|29 Mar 2017||The United Kingdom invokes Article 50.|
|26-27 Mar 2017||44%||43%||13%||1%||1,957||YouGov||Online|
|20-21 Mar 2017||44%||44%||12%||0%||1,627||YouGov||Online|
|1-15 Mar 2017||46%||41%||13%||5%||1,938||GfK||Online|
|13-14 Mar 2017||44%||42%||15%||2%||1,631||YouGov||Online|
|10-14 Mar 2017||49%||41%||10%||8%||2,003||Opinium||Online|
|27-28 Feb 2017||45%||44%||11%||1%||1,666||YouGov||Online|
|21-22 Feb 2017||45%||45%||10%||0%||2,060||YouGov||Online|
|12-13 Feb 2017||46%||42%||12%||4%||2,052||YouGov||Online|
|30-31 Jan 2017||45%||42%||12%||3%||1,705||YouGov||Online|
|17-18 Jan 2017||46%||42%||12%||4%||1,654||YouGov||Online|
|17 Jan 2017||Theresa May makes Lancaster House speech, setting out the UK Government's negotiating priorities.|
|9-12 Jan 2017||52%||39%||9%||13%||2,005||Opinium||Online|
|9-10 Jan 2017||46%||42%||12%||4%||1,660||YouGov||Online|
|3-4 Jan 2017||45%||44%||11%||1%||1,740||YouGov||Online|
|18-19 Dec 2016||44%||44%||12%||0%||1,595||YouGov||Online|
|4-5 Dec 2016||44%||42%||14%||2%||1,667||YouGov||Online|
|28-29 Nov 2016||44%||45%||11%||1%||1,624||YouGov||Online|
|14-15 Nov 2016||46%||43%||11%||3%||1,717||YouGov||Online|
|19-20 Oct 2016||45%||44%||11%||1%||1,608||YouGov||Online|
|11-12 Oct 2016||45%||44%||11%||1%||1,669||YouGov||Online|
|2 Oct 2016||Theresa May makes Conservative Party Conference speech, announcing her intention to invoke Article 50 by 31 March 2017.|
|13-14 Sep 2016||46%||44%||10%||2%||1,732||YouGov||Online|
|30-31 Aug 2016||47%||44%||9%||3%||1,687||YouGov||Online|
|22-23 Aug 2016||45%||43%||12%||2%||1,660||YouGov||Online|
|16-17 Aug 2016||46%||43%||11%||3%||1,677||YouGov||Online|
|8-9 Aug 2016||45%||44%||12%||1%||1,692||YouGov||Online|
|1-2 Aug 2016||46%||42%||12%||4%||1,722||YouGov||Online|
|13 Jul 2016||Theresa May becomes Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.|
There have also been opinion polls on the question of how people would vote in a second referendum on the same question. The results of these polls are shown in the table below.
|Date(s) conducted||Remain||Leave||Neither||Lead||Sample||Conducted by||Polling type||Notes|
|15 Dec 2017||The European Council decides to proceed to the second phase of the Brexit negotiations.|
|8-10 Dec 2017||46%||43%||12%||3%||2,006||ICM||Online|
|5-8 Dec 2017||51%||41%||8%||10%||1,509||BMG Research||Online|
|30 Nov-1 Dec 2017||49%||46%||6%||3%||1,003||Survation||Online|
|14-17 Nov 2017||45%||45%||10%||0%||1,509||BMG Research||Online|
|18-24 Oct 2017||44%||40%||16%||4%||1,648||YouGov||Online|
|19-20 Oct 2017||46%||45%||9%||1%||1,005||Opinium||Online|
|17-20 Oct 2017||47%||44%||8%||3%||1,506||BMG Research||Online|
|4-5 Oct 2017||49%||45%||6%||4%||2,047||Survation||Online|
|23 Sep 2017||46%||47%||6%||1%||1,174||Survation||Online|
|22 Sep 2017||Theresa May makes Florence speech, in an attempt to 'unblock' the Brexit negotiations.|
|19-22 Sep 2017||45%||44%||12%||1%||2,004||Opinium||Online|
|15-20 Sep 2017||47%||47%||5%||0%||1,614||Survation||Online|
|12-15 Sep 2017||47%||43%||10%||4%||1,447||BMG Research||Online|
|12-15 Sep 2017||45%||45%||10%||0%||2,009||Opinium||Online|
|15-18 Aug 2017||47%||44%||9%||3%||2,006||Opinium||Online|
|8-11 Aug 2017||46%||45%||9%||1%||1,512||BMG Research||Online|
|23-24 Jul 2017||46%||43%||11%||3%||1,609||YouGov||Online|
|14-15 Jul 2017||47%||48%||5%||1%||1,024||Survation||Online|
|11-14 Jul 2017||46%||45%||9%||1%||1,518||BMG Research||Online|
|28-30 Jun 2017||52%||44%||5%||8%||1,017||Survation||Telephone|
|23-30 Jun 2017||46%||42%||13%||4%||1,661||YouGov||Online|
|16-21 Jun 2017||46%||50%||4%||4%||5,481||Panelbase||Online|
|19 Jun 2017||Brexit negotiations begin.|
|16-17 Jun 2017||50%||48%||3%||2%||1,005||Survation||Online|
|10 Jun 2017||48%||46%||6%||2%||1,036||Survation||Online|
|8 Jun 2017||United Kingdom general election, 2017|
|2-7 Jun 2017||46%||51%||3%||5%||3,018||Panelbase||Online|
|2-5 Jun 2017||47%||44%||9%||3%||1,503||BMG Research||Online|
|26 May-1 Jun 2017||47%||49%||4%||2%||1,224||Panelbase||Online|
|25-30 May 2017||35%||38%||27%||3%||1,199||Kantar TNS||Online|
|19-22 May 2017||45%||45%||10%||0%||1,499||BMG Research||Online|
|12-15 May 2017||47%||50%||3%||3%||1,026||Panelbase||Online|
|5-9 May 2017||47%||49%||4%||2%||1,027||Panelbase||Online|
|28 Apr-2 May 2017||48%||49%||3%||1%||1,034||Panelbase||Online|
|21-24 Apr 2017||45%||45%||10%||0%||1,552||BMG Research||Online|
|20-24 Apr 2017||46%||50%||4%||4%||1,026||Panelbase||Online|
|28-31 Mar 2017||46%||46%||8%||0%||1,576||BMG Research||Online|
|23-30 Mar 2017||44%||43%||14%||1%||1,643||YouGov||Online|
|29 Mar 2017||The United Kingdom invokes Article 50.|
|21-24 Feb 2017||45%||46%||9%||1%||1,543||BMG Research||Online|
|19-24 Jan 2017||43%||44%||13%||1%||1,643||YouGov||Online|
|17 Jan 2017||Theresa May makes Lancaster House speech, setting out the UK Government's negotiating priorities.|
|6-9 Jan 2017||44%||45%||11%||1%||1,520||BMG Research||Online|
|14-21 Dec 2016||44%||43%||13%||1%||1,569||YouGov||Online|
|6-9 Dec 2016||43%||46%||11%||3%||1,532||BMG Research||Online|
|25-27 Nov 2016||46%||47%||6%||1%||2,035||ComRes||Online|
|22-25 Nov 2016||43%||43%||14%||0%||1,523||BMG Research||Online|
|20-25 Oct 2016||44%||43%||13%||1%||1,631||YouGov||Online|
|19-24 Oct 2016||45%||43%||12%||2%||1,546||BMG Research||Online|
|10-12 Oct 2016||44%||44%||12%||0%||1,002||Survation||Online|
|2 Oct 2016||Theresa May makes Conservative Party Conference speech, announcing her intention to invoke Article 50 by 31 March 2017.|
|16-20 Sep 2016||42%||46%||11%||4%||1,601||YouGov||Online|
|31 Aug-9 Sep 2016||43%||45%||13%||2%||1,711||YouGov||Online|
|20-27 Jul 2016||43%||44%||13%||1%||1,673||YouGov||Online|
|13 Jul 2016||Theresa May becomes Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.|
|3-4 Jul 2016||45%||45%||10%||0%||1,820||YouGov||Online|
|29-30 Jun 2016||48%||42%||9%||6%||2,006||Opinium||Online|
|29-30 Jun 2016||45%||37%||19%||8%||1,017||BMG Research||Online|
|23 Jun 2016||United Kingdom European Union membership referendum, 2016|
The response of artists and writers to Brexit has in general been negative, reflecting a reported overwhelming percentage of people involved in Britain's creative industries voting against leaving the European Union.
Responses by visual artists to Brexit include a mural, painted in May 2017, by the secretive graffiti artist Banksy near the ferry port at Dover in southern England. It shows a workman using a chisel to chip off one of the stars on the European Union Flag.
In his 2017 art exhibition at the Serpentine Gallery in London, the artist Grayson Perry showed a series of ceramic, tapestry and other works of art dealing with the divisions in Britain during the Brexit campaign and in its aftermath. This included two large ceramic pots, Perry called his Brexit Vases, standing on plinths ten feet apart, on the first of which were scenes involving pro-European British citizens, and on the second scenes involving anti-European British citizens. These were derived from what Perry called his "Brexit tour of Britain."
One of the first novels to engage with a post-Brexit Britain was Rabbitman by Michael Paraskos (published 9 March 2017). Rabbitman is a dark comic fantasy in which the events that lead to the election of a right-wing populist American president, who happens also to be a rabbit, and Britain's vote to leave the European Union, were the result of a series of Faustian pacts with the Devil. As a result, Rabbitman is set partly in a post-Brexit Britain in which society has collapsed and people are dependent on European Union food aid.
Mark Billingham’s Love Like Blood (published 1 June 2017) is a crime thriller in which Brexit sees a rise in xenophobic hate crime. In the novel The Remains of the Way (published 6 June 2017), David Boyle imagines Brexit was a conspiracy led by a forgotten government quango, still working away in Whitehall, originally set up by Thomas Cromwell in the sixteenth century during the reign of King Henry VIII, and now dedicated to a Protestant Brexit.
Post-Brexit Britain is also the setting for Amanda Craig's The Lie of the Land (published 13 June 2017), a satirical novel set ten years after the vote to leave the European Union, in which an impoverished middle class couple from Islington in north London are forced to move from the heart of the pro-European Union capital, to the heart of the pro-Brexit countryside in Devon.
Brexit is also the baseline for Douglas Board’s comic political thriller Time of Lies (published 23 June 2017). In this novel, the first post-Brexit general election in 2020 is won by a violent right-wing former football hooligan called Bob Grant. Board charts the response to this of the hitherto pro-European Union metropolitan political elite.
Stanley Johnson's Kompromat (scheduled for July 2017) is a political thriller that suggests the vote to leave the European Union was a result of Russian influence on the referendum, although Johnson has insisted his book is not intended to point the finger at Russia's secret services, but is "just meant to be fun."
In June 2017, the National Theatre in London presented a play by Carol Ann Duffy, entitled My Country; a work in progress. An allegorical work, the play uses the device of a convention called by the goddess Britannia, who is concerned about the future of the British people. The play differs from some artistic responses in that Duffy and the National Theatre-based the attitudes of the characters in part on the responses of ordinary people in interviews that were conducted by the regional offices of the UK Arts Councils, but excluding responses from London and the south-east of England, where most people voted not to leave the EU. As a result, according to Dominic Cavendish, writing in The Daily Telegraph, "the bias is towards the Leave camp".
Following the Brexit vote, there have been several attempts to set up a new pro-European political party. Examples include 'The Democrats' (a proposal by former Daily Mail political editor James Chapman), 'The Radicals' (proposed by Jeremy Cliffe, former Berlin bureau chief of The Economist) and the Renew Britain party.
Former Liberal Democrats leader Vince Cable criticised 'pop up' anti-Brexit parties formed following the 2016 referendum, saying of those groups policies "...it is the kind of ideology-free, technocratic, authoritarian centrism that would be more at home in, say, Singapore." and "Voters beware."
finding economists who say they believe that a Brexit will spur the British economy is like looking for a doctor who thinks forswearing vegetables is the key to a long life
The results I summarize in this section focus on long-run effects and have a forecast horizon of 10 or more years after Brexit occurs. Less is known about the likely dynamics of the transition process or the extent to which economic uncertainty and anticipation effects will impact the economies of the United Kingdom or the European Union in advance of Brexit.
When the UK leaves the EU it is expected to make a contribution towards the EU’s outstanding financial commitments – spending that was agreed while the UK was a member. The media have labelled this as an 'exit bill' or 'divorce bill', the EU see it as a matter of 'settling the accounts'. The issue has been discussed in the first phase of Brexit negotiations under the title of the 'single financial settlement' (the settlement).
David Cameron placed himself on a collision course with the Tory right when he mounted a passionate defence of Britain's membership of the EU and rejected out of hand an "in or out" referendum.
Cameron said he would continue to work for "a different, more flexible and less onerous position for Britain within the EU".
Mr Cameron said ... he would "continue to work for a different, more flexible and less onerous position for Britain within the EU".
[...] the weight of academic opinion is that Article 50 TEU does allow for a Member State to revoke the application to withdraw and simply revert to the status quo.
On 23 June 2016, 52% of British voters decided that being the first country ever to leave the EU was a price worth paying for 'taking back control', despite advice from economists clearly showing that Brexit would make the UK 'permanently poorer' (HM Treasury 2016). The extent of agreement among economists on the costs of Brexit was extraordinary: forecast after forecast supported similar conclusions (which have so far proved accurate in the aftermath of the Brexit vote).
Unlike the short-term effects of Brexit, which have been better than most had predicted, most economists say the ultimate impact of leaving the EU still appears likely to be more negative than positive. But the one thing almost all agree upon is that no one will know how big the effects are for some time.
The U.K. economy may be paying for Brexit for a long time to come... It won't mean Armageddon, but the broad consensus among economists -- whose predictions about the initial fallout were largely too pessimistic -- is for a prolonged effect that will ultimately diminish output, jobs and wealth to some degree.
One thing economists do generally agree on is that leaving the European Union and putting new trade barriers between Britain and our largest and closest trading partners is extremely unlikely to boost UK productivity growth – and is far more likely to slow it
Through analysis of the EU treaty database, the FT found 759 separate EU bilateral agreements with potential relevance to Britain, covering trade in nuclear goods, customs, fisheries, trade, transport and regulatory co-operation in areas such as antitrust or financial services. This includes multilateral agreements based on consensus, where Britain must re-approach 132 separate parties. Around 110 separate opt-in accords at the UN and World Trade Organisation are excluded from the estimates, as are narrow agreements on the environment, health, research and science. Some additional UK bilateral deals, outside the EU framework, may also need to be revised because they make reference to EU law. Some of the 759 are so essential that it would be unthinkable to operate without them. Air services agreements allow British aeroplanes to land in America, Canada or Israel; nuclear accords permit the trade in spare parts and fuel for Britain's power stations. Both these sectors are excluded from trade negotiations and must be addressed separately.
This Treaty is concluded for an unlimited duration and each of the Contracting Parties may terminate it at any time by written notification ... The termination shall come into effect two years after the date of this notification.
Die Briten haben sich für einen Abschied entschieden, Europa wird nun anders aussehen. Der Kontinent verliert seine (neben Frankreich) stärkste Militärmacht samt Atomwaffenarsenal, seine zweitgrößte Volkswirtschaft, das Land mit der drittgrößten Bevölkerung, die Finanzhauptstadt der Welt und einen von zwei Plätzen im UN-Sicherheitsrat. [The British have decided to leave. Europe will now look different. The continent will be losing its strongest military power (alongside France), ... its second largest economy, the country with the third largest population, the financial capital of the world, and one of two seats on the UN Security Council.]
Source: House of Lords, NAFC Marine Centre, University of the Highlands and Islands.
Ich sage ihnen, dass sie sich nicht in die Debatte einmischen sollen, denn sie werden feststellen, dass ich ihnen den Weg versperre.
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