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538 members of the Electoral College 270 electoral votes needed to win |
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The electoral map for the 2020 election, based on populations from the 2010 Census. The 2020 election will be the last election to use the data from the 2010 Census; the subsequent two elections will use information from the as yet-to-be-collected 2020 United States Census.
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The United States presidential election of 2020, scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2020, will be the 59th quadrennial U.S. presidential election. Voters will select presidential electors who in turn will either elect a new president and vice president through the electoral college or reelect the incumbents. The series of presidential primary elections and caucuses are likely to be held during the first six months of 2020. This nominating process is also an indirect election, where voters cast ballots selecting a slate of delegates to a political party's nominating convention, who then in turn elect their party's presidential nominee.
President Donald Trump of the Republican Party, who was elected in 2016, is eligible to seek reelection. He publicly stated his interest with the slogan "Keep America Great" and has an ongoing campaign. The winner of the 2020 presidential election is scheduled to be inaugurated on January 20, 2021.
Article Two of the United States Constitution states that for a person to serve as President of the United States the individual must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, at least 35 years old and a United States resident for at least 14 years. Candidates for the presidency typically seek the nomination of one of the various political parties of the United States, in which case each party develops a method (such as a primary election) to choose the candidate the party deems best suited to run for the position. The primary elections are usually indirect elections where voters cast ballots for a slate of party delegates pledged to a particular candidate. The party's delegates then officially nominate a candidate to run on the party's behalf. The nominee then personally chooses a vice presidential running mate to form that party's presidential ticket (with the exception of the Libertarian Party, which nominates its vice presidential candidate by delegate vote regardless of the nominee's preference). The general election in November is also an indirect election, where voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral College; these electors then directly elect the President and Vice President.[1]
The Twenty-second Amendment to the Constitution states that an individual can not be elected to the presidency more than twice. This prohibits former Presidents Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama from being elected president again. However, former presidents Jimmy Carter and George H. W. Bush (both nonagenarians), having each served a single term as president, are not constitutionally prohibited from being elected to another term in the 2020 election.
The age group of what will then be people in the 18 to 45-year-old bracket is expected to represent just under 40 percent of the United States' eligible voters in 2020. It is expected that more than 30 percent of eligible American voters will be nonwhite.[2]
A bipartisan report indicates that changes in voter demographics since the 2016 election could impact the results of the 2020 election. African Americans, Hispanics, Asians/others, and "whites with a college degree" are expected to all increase their percentage of national eligible voters by 2020, while "whites without a college degree" will decrease. This shift is potentially an advantage for the Democratic nominee, however due to geographical differences, this could still lead to President Trump (or a different Republican nominee) winning the Electoral College while still losing the popular vote, possibly by an even larger margin than in 2016.[3]
Additionally, Washington, D.C. may lower its voting age from 18 to 16. Legislation was introduced by City Councilman Charles Allen in April 2018, with a public hearing expected for June, and a vote by the end of the year. Unlike other cities with a voting age of 16 such as Berkeley, California, this would allow 16 and 17-year-olds to vote for President of the United States for the first time in 2020. Allen said that he was inspired by the high school students that participated in the March for Our Lives, which occurred at the capital in March.[4]
The presidential election will occur at the same time as elections to the Senate and the House of Representatives. Several states will also hold state gubernatorial and state legislative elections. Following the election, the United States House will redistribute the seats among the 50 states based on the results of the 2020 United States Census, and the states will conduct a redistricting of Congressional and state legislative districts. In most states, the governor and the state legislature conduct the redistricting (although some states have redistricting commissions), and often a party that wins a presidential election experiences a coattail effect that also helps other candidates of that party win election.[5] Therefore, the party that wins the 2020 presidential election could also win a significant advantage in the drawing of new Congressional and state legislative districts that would stay in effect until the 2032 elections.[6]
An incumbent president seeking re-election usually faces no significant opposition during their respective party's primaries, especially if they are still popular. For Presidents Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama, for example, their respective paths to nomination became uneventful and the races become merely pro forma; all four then went on to win a second presidential term. Serious challenges are rare, but then generally presage failure to win the general election in the fall. During the 1976 Republican Party primaries, then-former California Governor Reagan carried 23 states while running against incumbent President Gerald Ford; Ford then went on to lose the presidential election to Jimmy Carter, albeit carrying more states. Senator Ted Kennedy then carried 12 states while running against President Carter during the 1980 Democratic Party primaries; Reagan then defeated Carter in the fall of 1980. Pat Buchanan captured a decent percentage of a protest vote against President George H. W. Bush during the 1992 Republican primaries, but only received a handful of delegates; Bush too subsequently went on to lose in the general election to Clinton.
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![]() Trump vs. Biden
Trump vs. Booker
Trump vs. J. Brown
Trump vs. S. Brown
Trump vs. Garcetti
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Trump vs. Harris
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Trump vs. Landrieu
Trump vs. Obama
Trump vs. Patrick
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![]() Trump vs. Biden
Trump vs. Sanders
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![]() Trump vs. Biden
Trump vs. Sanders
Trump vs. Warren
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![]() Trump vs. Biden
Trump vs. Cooper
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Donald Trump is eligible to run for re-election and intends to do so.[46] His reelection campaign has been ongoing since his victory in 2016, leading pundits to describe his tactic of holding rallies continuously throughout his presidency as a "never-ending campaign".[47] On January 20, 2017 at 5:11 PM, he submitted a letter as a substitute of FEC Form 2, for which he had reached the legal threshold for filing, in compliance with the Federal Election Campaign Act.[48]
Beginning in August 2017, reports arose that members of the Republican Party were preparing a "shadow campaign" against Trump, particularly from the moderate or establishment wings of the party.[49] A poor showing for the GOP in the 2018 midterm elections may lead to an influx of ambitious politicians vying to reclaim the nomination from Trump, as Arizona Senator John McCain has said that "[Republicans] see weakness in this president." Maine Senator Susan Collins, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, and former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie have all expressed doubts that Trump will be the 2020 nominee, with Collins stating "it's too difficult to say."[50][51] Meanwhile, Senator Jeff Flake has claimed that Trump is "inviting" a primary challenger by the way he is governing.[52]
The candidates in this section have held public office or been included in a minimum of five independent national polls.
Name | Born | Current or previous positions | State | Announced | Ref |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
![]() Donald Trump |
June 14, 1946 (age 71) New York City, New York |
President of the United States since 2017 Candidate for President in 2000 |
![]() New York |
August 19, 2016![]() (Campaign • Website) FEC Filing |
[53] |
Name | Born | Current or previous positions | State | Announced | Ref |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
![]() Jack Fellure |
October 3, 1931 (age 86) Midkiff, West Virginia |
Retired engineer Prohibition nominee for President in 2012 Candidate for President in 1988, 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008, and 2016 |
![]() West Virginia |
November 9, 2016 FEC Filing |
[54] |
![]() Brad Thor |
August 21, 1969 (age 48) Chicago, Illinois |
Thriller novelist | ![]() Tennessee |
April 21, 2018 | [55] |
Individuals in this section have expressed an interest in running for President within the last six months.
The individuals in this section have been the subject of speculation about their possible candidacy, but have publicly denied interest in running.
Bids for the National Convention were solicited in the fall of 2017, with finalists being announced early the following spring. The winning bid will be revealed in the summer of 2018.
Brad Thor |
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National | |||||||||||||||||||
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Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of error | Tom Cotton |
Ted Cruz |
Jeff Flake |
Trey Gowdy |
Nikki Haley |
John Kasich |
Mike Pence |
Colin Powell |
Mitt Romney |
Marco Rubio |
Paul Ryan |
Ben Sasse |
Donald Trump |
Oprah Winfrey |
Others | Undecided |
CNN/SRSS[73] | 458 | March 22–25, 2018 | ± 5.4% | – | 1% | – | 1% | – | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | – | 1% | – | 75% | 1% | 7% | 11% |
USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times[117] | 1,313 | December 15, 2017 – January 15, 2018 | ± 2.0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 75% | – | 25% | – |
Emerson College[118] | 198 | January 8–11, 2018 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 68% | – | 18% | 14% |
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner/Democracy Corps[81] | 370 | January 8–11, 2018 | – | – | 4% | 1% | – | 4% | 3% | 11% | – | 5% | 5% | – | – | 62% | – | 0% | 5% |
Public Policy Polling[11] | 284 | December 11–12, 2017 | ± 3.3% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 70% | – | 24% | 6% |
– | 21% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 64% | – | – | 15% | ||||
– | – | 16% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 74% | – | – | 10% | ||||
– | – | – | – | – | – | 22% | – | – | – | – | – | 62% | – | – | 15% | ||||
– | – | – | – | – | 19% | – | – | – | – | – | – | 70% | – | – | 11% | ||||
Public Religion Research Institute[119] | 846 | October 18–30, 2017 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 59% | – | 34% | 7% |
Public Policy Polling[13] | 183 | October 27–29, 2017 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 57% | – | 36% | 8% |
– | 27% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 57% | – | – | 16% | ||||
– | – | 14% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 70% | – | – | 16% | ||||
– | – | – | – | – | – | 28% | – | – | – | – | – | 53% | – | – | 19% | ||||
– | – | – | – | – | 24% | – | – | – | – | – | – | 66% | – | – | 11% | ||||
Public Policy Polling[16] | 268 | September 22–25, 2017 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 61% | – | 27% | 12% |
– | 15% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 68% | – | – | 17% | ||||
– | – | – | – | – | – | 21% | – | – | – | – | – | 59% | – | – | 21% | ||||
– | – | – | – | – | 18% | – | – | – | – | – | – | 68% | – | – | 13% | ||||
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates[120] (Trump-aligned) |
1,500 | August 2017 | ± 2.5% | 1% | 14% | – | – | – | 10% | – | – | – | – | – | 1% | 50% | – | – | 24% |
Public Policy Polling[17] | 275 | August 18–21, 2017 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 57% | – | 29% | 13% |
– | 22% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 62% | – | – | 17% | ||||
– | – | – | – | – | – | 24% | – | – | – | – | – | 52% | – | – | 23% | ||||
– | – | – | – | – | 21% | – | – | – | – | – | – | 68% | – | – | 11% | ||||
Opinion Savvy[35] | 221 | August 16–17, 2017 | ± 6.6% | – | 12% | – | – | – | 15% | 65% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 8% |
220 | – | – | 8% | – | – | 17% | – | – | – | – | – | – | 68% | – | – | 7% | |||
Marist Poll[121] | 361 | August 8–12, 2017 | ± 5.2% | – | – | – | – | – | 23% | – | – | – | – | – | – | 64% | – | 3% | 10% |
– | – | – | – | – | – | 33% | – | – | – | – | – | 56% | – | 3% | 8% |
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After Hillary Clinton's loss in the previous election, the Democratic Party was seen largely as leaderless[125] and fractured between the centrist Clinton wing and the more progressive Sanders wing of the party, echoing the rift brought up in the 2016 primary election.[126][127] The party was further splintered by the DNC Chair election in February 2017 between moderate[dubious ] Tom Perez and Sanders-backed progressive Keith Ellison.[128] Perez ended up winning the leadership position, with Ellison being appointed to the primarily ceremonial position of Deputy Chair in order to lessen the divide. This race was mirrored in the 2017 Virginia gubernatorial election where the establishment, Clinton-backed Ralph Northam won the party's primary against Sanders-backed Tom Perriello.[129] Meanwhile there has been a general shift to the left in regards to college tuition, healthcare, and immigration[citation needed] among Democrats in the Senate, likely to build up credentials for the upcoming primary election.[130]
Perez has commented that the 2020 primary field will likely go into double-digits, rivaling the size of the 2016 GOP primary, which consisted of 17 major candidates.[131] Speculation also mounted that Democrats' best bet to defeat President Trump would be to nominate their own celebrity or businessperson with no government experience, most notably Oprah Winfrey after her memorable speech at the 75th Golden Globe Awards.[132]
The topic of age has been brought up among the most likely front-runners: former Vice President Joe Biden, Massachusetts senator Elizabeth Warren, and senator Sanders; who will be 78, 71, and 79 respectively on inauguration day. Former Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid described the trio as "an old folks' home", expressing a need for fresh faces to step up and lead the party.[133]
The candidates in this section have held public office or been included in a minimum of five independent national polls.
Name | Born | Current or previous positions | State | Announced | Ref |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
![]() John Delaney |
April 16, 1963 (age 55) Wood-Ridge, New Jersey |
U.S. Representative from Maryland since 2013 | ![]() Maryland |
July 28, 2017![]() (Campaign • Website) FEC Filing |
[134] |
Name | Born | Current or previous positions | State | Announced | Ref |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
![]() Jeff Boss |
May 20, 1963 (age 54) |
Conspiracy theorist Candidate for U.S. Representative from New York in 2018 Candidate for Mayor of New York City in 2013 and 2017 Candidate for Governor of New Jersey in 2009, 2013, and 2017 Candidate for President in 2008, 2012, and 2016 Candidate for U.S. Representative in 2010 and 2016 Candidate for U.S. Senate in 2008 and 2014 |
![]() New York |
August 5, 2017 (Website) |
[135] |
![]() Harry Braun |
November 6, 1948 (age 69) Compton, California |
Renewable energy consultant and researcher Democratic nominee for U.S. Representative from Arizona in 1984 and 1986 Candidate for President in 2004, 2012, and 2016 |
![]() Georgia |
December 7, 2017 FEC Filing |
[136] |
![]() Rocky De La Fuente |
October 10, 1954 (age 63) San Diego, California |
Businessman and political activist American Delta and Reform nominee for President in 2016 Candidate for U.S. Senate from California in 2018 Candidate for Mayor of New York City, New York in 2017 Candidate for U.S. Senate from Florida in 2016 |
![]() California |
January 9, 2017 | [137] |
![]() Geoffrey Fieger |
December 23, 1950 (age 67) Detroit, Michigan |
Attorney Democratic nominee for Governor of Michigan in 1998 |
![]() Michigan |
January 13, 2017 | [138] |
Robby Wells |
April 10, 1968 (age 50) Bartow, Georgia |
Former college football coach Candidate for President in 2012 and 2016 |
![]() North Carolina |
May 24, 2017 (Website) |
[139] |
![]() Andrew Yang |
January 13, 1975 (age 43) Schenectady, New York |
Entrepreneur | ![]() New York |
November 6, 2017![]() (Website) FEC Filing |
[140] |
Individuals in this section have expressed an interest in running for President within the last six months.
The individuals in this section have been the subject of speculation about their possible candidacy, but have publicly denied interest in running.
Bids for the National Convention were solicited in the fall of 2017, with finalists being announced early the following spring. The winning bid will be revealed in the summer of 2018.
John Delaney |
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Andrew Yang |
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National | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of error | Joe Biden |
Cory Booker |
Sherrod Brown |
Julian Castro |
Hillary Clinton |
Andrew Cuomo |
Al Franken |
Kirsten Gillibrand |
Kamala Harris |
Jason Kander |
Joe Kennedy III |
Amy Klobuchar |
Terry McAuliffe |
Michelle Obama |
Tim Ryan |
Bernie Sanders |
Elizabeth Warren |
Oprah Winfrey |
Mark Zuckerberg |
Others | Undecided |
Rasmussen Reports[311] | 1,000 | February 27–28, 2018 | ± 3.0% | 25% | 4% | – | – | 9% | – | – | – | 4% | – | – | – | 2% | – | – | 12% | 4% | – | – | 25% | 17% |
Civis Analytics[312] | – | January 19, 2018 | – | 29% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 27% | – | 17% | – | 27% | – |
Harvard CAPS/Harris[313] | 441 | January 13–16, 2018 | – | 27% | 4% | – | – | 13% | 2% | – | 1% | 4% | – | – | – | – | – | – | 16% | 10% | 13% | – | – | 10% |
USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times[117] | 1,699 | December 15, 2017 – January 15, 2018 | ± 2.0% | 28% | 3% | – | – | 19% | – | – | 2% | 5% | – | 4% | 1% | – | – | 1% | 22% | 11% | – | – | 4% | – |
RABA Research[314] | 345 | January 10–11, 2018 | ± 5.0% | 26% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 21% | 18% | 20% | – | – | 15% |
Emerson College[118] | 216 | January 8–11, 2018 | – | 27% | 3% | – | – | – | – | – | 3% | 2% | 4% | – | 2% | – | – | – | 23% | 9% | – | – | 9% | 19% |
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner/Democracy Corps[81] | 440 | January 6–11, 2018 | – | 26% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 29% | 14% | 8% | – | 12% | 6% |
Zogby Analytics[315] | 682 | October 30, 2017 | – | 19% | – | – | – | – | 2% | – | 1% | 3% | – | – | 1% | 2% | 22% | – | 18% | 8% | – | 4% | – | 20% |
Zogby Analytics[316] | 356 | September 12, 2017 | – | 17% | – | – | – | – | 3% | – | 3% | 6% | – | – | 1% | 1% | – | – | 28% | 12% | – | 7% | – | 23% |
Rasmussen Reports[317] | 1,000 | February 8–9, 2017 | ± 3.0% | 15% | 8% | – | – | 17% | – | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 20% | 16% | – | – | 20% | – |
Public Policy Polling[318] | 400 | December 6–7, 2016 | ± 4.9% | 31% | 4% | 2% | 0% | – | 2% | 3% | 3% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 24% | 16% | – | – | – | 14% |
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Name | Born | Current or previous positions | State | Announced | Ref |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
![]() Zoltan Istvan |
March 30, 1973 (age 45) Los Angeles, California |
Transhumanist, journalist, entrepreneur, and Libertarian futurist Transhumanist nominee for President in 2016 Candidate for Governor of California in 2018 |
![]() California |
November 25, 2017 (Website) |
[320] |
![]() Adam Kokesh |
February 1, 1982 (age 36) San Francisco, California |
Libertarian and anti-war political activist Candidate for U.S. Representative from New Mexico in 2010 |
![]() Arizona |
July 18, 2013 (Campaign • Website) FEC Filing |
[321] |
The individuals in this section have been the subject of speculation about their possible candidacy, but have publicly denied interest in running.
On December 10, 2017, the Libertarian National Committee chose Austin, Texas as the site of their 2020 national convention. The convention will be held between May 22–25, 2020.[326]
The individuals in this section have been the subject of speculation about their possible candidacy, but have publicly denied interest in running.
Beginning in August 2017, rumors emerged about a possible independent "unity ticket" between governors John Kasich (Republican of Ohio), and John Hickenlooper (Democrat of Colorado) based on their cooperation on healthcare. Playfully given the nicknames "Kasichlooper" and "The Johns," the idea of a joint ticket was shot down by both governors.[332] Hickenlooper commenting "it’s fun to talk about, but it’s not in the cards."[333] With Kasich quipping "Look, Kasich-Hickenlooper, first of all, you couldn't pronounce it and second of all, you couldn't fit it on a bumper sticker [...] the answer is no."
Name | Born | Current or previous positions | State | Announced | Ref |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
![]() Lawrence Jackson |
August 30, 1985 (age 32) Los Angeles, California |
Former football player | ![]() California |
November 23, 2017 FEC Filing |
[334] |
![]() Dan Rattiner |
August 15, 1939 (age 78) New York City, New York |
Journalist and newspaper publisher | ![]() New York |
April 24, 2015 | [335] |
![]() Kanye West |
June 8, 1977 (age 40) Atlanta, Georgia |
Rapper, singer, songwriter, record producer, fashion designer, and entrepreneur | ![]() California |
August 30, 2015 | [336] |
Individuals in this section have expressed an interest in running for President within the last six months.
The individuals in this section have been the subject of speculation about their possible candidacy, but have publicly denied interest in running.
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