United States presidential election, 2020
← 2016
November 3, 2020 2024 →
The electoral map for the 2020 election, based on populations from the
2010 Census . The 2020 election will be the last election to use the data from the 2010 Census; the subsequent two elections will use information from the as yet-to-be-collected
2020 United States Census .
The United States presidential election of 2020 , scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2020, will be the 59th quadrennial U.S. presidential election. Voters will select presidential electors who in turn will either elect a new president and vice president through the electoral college or re-elect the incumbents. The series of presidential primary elections and caucuses are likely to be held during the first six months of 2020. This nominating process is also an indirect election, where voters cast ballots selecting a slate of delegates to a political party's nominating convention , who then in turn elect their party's presidential nominee.
President Donald Trump of the Republican Party , who was elected in 2016 , will be eligible to seek re-election. The winner of the 2020 presidential election is scheduled to be inaugurated on January 20, 2021.
Background Procedure Article Two of the United States Constitution states that for a person to be elected and serve as President of the United States the individual must be a natural-born citizen of the United States , at least 35 years old and a United States resident for at least 14 years. Candidates for the presidency typically seek the nomination of one of the various political parties of the United States, in which case each party develops a method (such as a primary election ) to choose the candidate the party deems best suited to run for the position. The primary elections are usually indirect elections where voters cast ballots for a slate of party delegates pledged to a particular candidate. The party's delegates then officially nominate a candidate to run on the party's behalf. The general election in November is also an indirect election, where voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral College ; these electors then directly elect the President and Vice President.[1]
Demographic trends The age group of what will then be persons in the 18 to 45-year-old bracket is expected to represent 40 percent of the United States' eligible voters in 2020.[2]
Simultaneous elections The presidential election will occur at the same time as elections to the Senate and the House of Representatives . Several states will also hold state gubernatorial and state legislative elections. Following the election, the United States House will redistribute the seats among the 50 states based on the results of the 2020 United States Census , and the states will conduct a redistricting of Congressional and state legislative districts. In most states, the governor and the state legislature conduct the redistricting (although some states have redistricting commissions ), and often a party that wins a presidential election experiences a coattail effect that also helps other candidates of that party win election.[3] significant advantage in the drawing of new Congressional and state legislative districts that would stay in effect until the 2032 elections.[4]
Advantage of incumbency An incumbent president seeking re-election usually faces no significant opposition during their respective party's primaries, especially if they are still popular. For Presidents Ronald Reagan , Bill Clinton , George W. Bush and Barack Obama , for example, their respective paths to nomination became uneventful and the races become merely pro forma 1976 Republican Party primaries , then-former California Governor Reagan carried 23 states while running against incumbent President Gerald Ford ; Ford then went on to lose the presidential election to Jimmy Carter , albeit carrying more states. Senator Ted Kennedy then carried 12 states while running against Carter during the 1980 Democratic Party primaries ; Reagan then defeated Carter in the fall of 1980. Pat Buchanan captured a decent percentage of a protest vote against George H. W. Bush during the 1992 Republican primaries , but only received a handful of delegates; Bush too subsequently went on to lose in the general election to Clinton.
General election polling
Polling
Trump vs. Biden
Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of Error Donald Trump Joe Biden Undecided
Public Policy Polling[5]
692
July 14–17, 2017
± 3.7%
39%
54% 7%
Public Policy Polling[6]
692
June 9–11, 2017
± 3.7%
41%
54% 5%
Public Policy Polling[7]
692
May 12–14, 2017
± 3.7%
40%
54% 6%
Public Policy Polling[8]
648
April 17–18, 2017
± 3.9%
40%
54% 6%
Public Policy Polling[9]
677
March 27–28, 2017
± 3.8%
40%
54% 6%
Trump vs. Booker
Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of Error Donald Trump Cory Booker Undecided
Public Policy Polling[5]
692
July 14–17, 2017
± 3.7%
40%
45% 15%
Public Policy Polling[6]
692
June 9–11, 2017
± 3.7%
41%
43% 17%
Public Policy Polling[7]
692
May 12–14, 2017
± 3.7%
39%
46% 15%
Public Policy Polling[8]
648
April 17–18, 2017
± 3.9%
42% 42% 17%
Public Policy Polling[9]
677
March 27–28, 2017
± 3.8%
42%
45% 13%
Trump vs. Harris
Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of Error Donald Trump Kamala Harris Undecided
Public Policy Polling[5]
692
July 14–17, 2017
± 3.7%
40%
41% 19%
Public Policy Polling[6]
692
June 9–11, 2017
± 3.7%
41%
42% 18%
Trump vs. Sanders
Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of Error Donald Trump Bernie Sanders Undecided
Public Policy Polling[5]
692
July 14–17, 2017
± 3.7%
39%
52% 9%
Public Policy Polling[6]
692
June 9–11, 2017
± 3.7%
41%
51% 8%
Public Policy Polling[7]
692
May 12–14, 2017
± 3.7%
39%
52% 9%
Public Policy Polling[8]
648
April 17–18, 2017
± 3.9%
41%
50% 8%
Public Policy Polling[9]
677
March 27–28, 2017
± 3.8%
41%
52% 7%
Trump vs. Warren
Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of Error Donald Trump Elizabeth Warren Undecided
Public Policy Polling[5]
692
July 14–17, 2017
± 3.7%
42%
49% 9%
Public Policy Polling[6]
692
June 9–11, 2017
± 3.7%
43%
46% 11%
Public Policy Polling[7]
692
May 12–14, 2017
± 3.7%
39%
49% 12%
Public Policy Polling[8]
648
April 17–18, 2017
± 3.9%
42%
46% 13%
Public Policy Polling[9]
677
March 27–28, 2017
± 3.8%
43%
48% 9%
Politico/Morning Consult[10]
1,791
February 9–10, 2017
± 2%
42% 36%
22%
Trump vs. Franken
Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of Error Donald Trump Al Franken Undecided
Public Policy Polling[7]
692
May 12–14, 2017
± 3.7%
38%
46% 16%
Public Policy Polling[8]
648
April 17–18, 2017
± 3.9%
43% 43% 14%
Public Policy Polling[9]
677
March 27–28, 2017
± 3.8%
41%
46% 13%
Trump vs. Johnson
Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of Error Donald Trump Dwayne Johnson Undecided
Public Policy Polling[7]
692
May 12–14, 2017
± 3.7%
37%
42% 21%
Trump vs. Winfrey
Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of Error Donald Trump Oprah Winfrey Undecided
Public Policy Polling[11]
808
March 10–12, 2017
± 3.4%
40%
47% 12%
Trump vs. Cuban
Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of Error Donald Trump Mark Cuban Undecided
Public Policy Polling[12]
941
February 21–22, 2017
± 3.2%
41% 40%
19%
Trump vs. generic Democrat
Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of Error Donald Trump Democratic Candidate Undecided
Politico/Morning Consult[10]
1,791
February 9–10, 2017
± 2%
35%
43% 22%
Republican Party Donald Trump is eligible to run for re-election and has implied that he intends to do so.[13] His reelection campaign is ongoing. On January 20, 2017 at 5:11 PM, he submitted a letter as a substitute of FEC Form 2, for which he had reached the legal threshold for filing, in compliance with the Federal Election Campaign Act .[14]
Presumptive incumbents Below are other Republican candidates that may or will run in 2020:
Declared candidates
Speculative candidates Declined to be candidates Potential convention sites Bids for the National Convention will be solicited in the fall of 2017, with finalists being announced early the following spring. The winning bid will be revealed in the summer of 2018.
Democratic Party Declared candidates Individuals who have publicly expressed interest Individuals in this section have expressed an interest in running for President within the last six months.
Joe Biden , Vice President of the United States 2009–2017; U.S. Senator from Delaware 1973–2009; candidate for President in 1988 and in 2008 [37] [38] [39] Jerry Brown , Governor of California since 2011 and 1975–1983; Mayor of Oakland 1999–2007; candidate for President in 1976 , 1980 , and 1992 [40] [41] [42] Lincoln Chafee , Governor of Rhode Island 2011–2015; U.S. Senator 1999–2007; candidate for President in 2016 [43] [44] [45] Stephen Colbert , comedian, television host, and author; candidate for President in 2008 [46] [47] [48] John Hickenlooper , Governor of Colorado since 2011; Mayor of Denver 2003–2011[49] Eric Holder , U.S. Attorney General 2009–2015[50] [51] [52] Dwayne Johnson α Florida [53] [54] [55] Terry McAuliffe , Governor of Virginia since 2014[56] [57] [58] Martin O'Malley , Governor of Maryland 2007–2015; Mayor of Baltimore 1999–2007; candidate for President in 2016 [59] [60] [61]
Speculative candidates
Cory Booker , U.S. Senator from New Jersey since 2013; Mayor of Newark 2006–2013[62] [63] [64] Steve Bullock , Governor of Montana since 2013[65] [66] Julian Castro , U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development 2014–2017; Mayor of San Antonio 2009–2014[67] [68] John Bel Edwards , Governor of Louisiana since 2016[69] [70] Tulsi Gabbard , U.S. Representative from Hawaii since 2013[71] [72] Eric Garcetti , Mayor of Los Angeles since 2013[73] [74] [75] Kamala Harris , U.S. Senator from California since 2017[76] [77] [78] Jason Kander , Secretary of State of Missouri 2013–2017; Democratic nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2016 [79] [80] [81] Caroline Kennedy , U.S. Ambassador to Japan 2013–2017[82] [83] [84] John Kerry , U.S. Secretary of State 2013–2017; U.S. Senator from Massachusetts 1985–2013; Democratic nominee for President in 2004 [85] [86] Amy Klobuchar , U.S. Senator from Minnesota since 2007[87] [88] [89] Mitch Landrieu , Mayor of New Orleans since 2010[90] [91] [92] Jeff Merkley , U.S. Senator from Oregon since 2009[93] [94] Tim Ryan , U.S. Representative from Ohio since 2003[95] [96] Bernie Sanders α U.S. Senator from Vermont since 2007; U.S. Representative 1991–2007; candidate for President in 2016 [97] [98] [99] Adam Schiff , U.S. Representative from California since 2001[100] [101] [102] Tom Steyer , hedge fund manager, philanthropist, and environmentalist from California [103] [104]
Declined to be candidates
Sherrod Brown , U.S. Senator from Ohio since 2007; U.S. Representative 1993–2007[105] [106] Chelsea Clinton , First Daughter of the United States 1993–2001[107] [108] Hillary Clinton , U.S. Secretary of State 2009–2013; U.S. Senator from New York 2001–2009; candidate for President in 2008 and Democratic nominee in 2016 [109] [110] [111] George Clooney , actor, filmmaker, activist, and philanthropist from California [112] [113] [114] Mark Cuban α Texas [115] [116] [117] Andrew Cuomo , Governor of New York since 2011; U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development 1997–2001[118] [119] [120] Al Franken , U.S. Senator from Minnesota since 2009[121] [122] [123] Kirsten Gillibrand , U.S. Senator from New York since 2009; U.S. Representative 2007–2009[124] [125] [126] Jay Inslee , Governor of Washington since 2013; U.S. Representative 1993–1995 and 1999–2012[127] [128] [129] Tim Kaine , U.S. Senator from Virginia since 2013; Governor 2006–2010; Mayor of Richmond 1998–2001; Democratic nominee for Vice President in 2016 [130] [131] Seth Moulton , U.S. Representative from Massachusetts since 2015[132] [133] [134] Chris Murphy , U.S. Senator from Connecticut since 2013; U.S. Representative 2007–2013[135] [136] [137] Michelle Obama , First Lady of the United States 2009–2017[138] [139] [140] Sheryl Sandberg , technology executive, activist, and author from California [141] [142] Howard Schultz α Washington [143] [144] [145] Mark Warner , U.S. Senator from Virginia since 2009; Governor 2002–2006[146] [147] [148] Elizabeth Warren , U.S. Senator from Massachusetts since 2013[149] [150] [151] Maxine Waters , U.S. Representative from California since 1991[152] [153] [154] Oprah Winfrey , media proprietor, talk show host, actress, producer, and philanthropist from California [155] [156] [157] Mark Zuckerberg α California [158] [159] [160]
Potential convention sites Bids for the National Convention will be solicited in the fall of 2017, with finalists being announced early the following spring. The winning bid will be revealed in the summer of 2018.
National polling
Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of Error Joe Biden Cory Booker Sherrod Brown Julian Castro Hillary Clinton Mark Cuban Andrew Cuomo Al Franken Kirsten Gillibrand Tim Kaine Michelle Obama Bernie Sanders Elizabeth Warren Oprah Winfrey Others Undecided
Harvard-Harris[165]
2,092
March 14–16, 2017
N/A
–
3%
–
–
–
4%
4%
–
–
–
14%
18% 10%
4%
44% –
Harvard-Harris[165]
2,092
March 14–16, 2017
N/A
–
3%
–
–
8%
4%
3%
–
–
–
11%
14% 9%
3%
45% –
Rasmussen[166]
1,000
February 8–9, 2017
± 3%
15%
8%
–
–
17%
–
–
6%
–
–
–
20% 16%
–
0%
20%
Public Policy Polling[167]
400
December 6–7, 2016
± 4.9%
31% 4%
2%
0%
–
–
2%
3%
3%
–
–
24%
16%
–
–
14%
Politico/Morning Consult[168]
1,989
October 5–6, 2016
± 2%
–
5%
–
–
–
–
6%
–
–
10%
–
–
16% –
8%
54%
Statewide polling Iowa
Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of Error Cory Booker Julian Castro Andrew Cuomo Kirsten Gillibrand Kamala Harris Amy Klobuchar Martin O'Malley Sheryl Sandberg Howard Schultz Others Undecided
Public Policy Polling[169] (for a Martin O'Malley-aligned PAC)
1,062
March 3–6, 2017
N/A
17%
4%
8%
3%
3%
11%
18% 4%
1%
–
32%
Third-party, independent, and unaffiliated candidates Libertarian Party Declared candidates
Declined to be candidates Green Party Individuals who have publicly expressed interest Individuals in this section have expressed an interest in running for President within the last six months.
Declined to be candidates Independent or unaffiliated Declared candidates Individuals who have publicly expressed interest Individuals in this section have expressed an interest in running for President within the last six months.
Speculative candidates Declined to be candidates See also Notes
α
References
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