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United States presidential election, 2020

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United States presidential election, 2020
United States
← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →
538 members of the Electoral College
270 electoral votes needed to win
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About this image
The electoral map for the 2020 election, based on populations from the 2010 Census. The 2020 election will be the last election to use the data from the 2010 Census; the subsequent two elections will use information from the as yet-to-be-collected 2020 United States Census.
Incumbent President

Donald Trump
Republican


The United States presidential election of 2020, scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2020, will be the 59th quadrennial U.S. presidential election. Voters will select presidential electors who in turn will either elect a new president and vice president through the electoral college or reelect the incumbents. The series of presidential primary elections and caucuses are likely to be held during the first six months of 2020. This nominating process is also an indirect election, where voters cast ballots selecting a slate of delegates to a political party's nominating convention, who then in turn elect their party's presidential nominee.

President Donald Trump of the Republican Party, who was elected in 2016, is eligible to seek reelection. He publicly stated his interest with the slogan "Keep America Great" and has an ongoing campaign. The winner of the 2020 presidential election is scheduled to be inaugurated on January 20, 2021.

Background

Procedure

Further information: United States presidential election

Article Two of the United States Constitution states that for a person to serve as President of the United States the individual must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, at least 35 years old and a United States resident for at least 14 years. Candidates for the presidency typically seek the nomination of one of the various political parties of the United States, in which case each party develops a method (such as a primary election) to choose the candidate the party deems best suited to run for the position. The primary elections are usually indirect elections where voters cast ballots for a slate of party delegates pledged to a particular candidate. The party's delegates then officially nominate a candidate to run on the party's behalf. The nominee then personally chooses a vice presidential running mate to form that party's presidential ticket (with the exception of the Libertarian Party, which nominates its vice presidential candidate by delegate vote regardless of the nominee's preference). The general election in November is also an indirect election, where voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral College; these electors then directly elect the President and Vice President.[1]

The Twenty-second Amendment to the Constitution states that an individual can not be elected to the presidency more than twice. This prohibits former Presidents Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama from being elected president again. However, former presidents Jimmy Carter and George H. W. Bush (both nonagenarians), having each served a single term as president, are not constitutionally prohibited from being elected to another term in the 2020 election.

Demographic trends

Further information: Demography of the United States

The age group of what will then be people in the 18 to 45-year-old bracket is expected to represent just under 40 percent of the United States' eligible voters in 2020. It is expected that more than 30 percent of eligible American voters will be nonwhite.[2]

A bipartisan report indicates that changes in voter demographics since the 2016 election could impact the results of the 2020 election. African Americans, Hispanics, Asians/others, and "whites with a college degree" are expected to all increase their percentage of national eligible voters by 2020, while "whites without a college degree" will decrease. This shift is potentially an advantage for the Democratic nominee, however due to geographical differences, this could still lead to President Trump (or a different Republican nominee) winning the Electoral College while still losing the popular vote, possibly by an even larger margin than in 2016.[3]

Additionally, Washington, D.C. may lower its voting age from 18 to 16. Legislation was introduced by City Councilman Charles Allen in April 2018, with a public hearing expected for June, and a vote by the end of the year. Unlike other cities with a voting age of 16 such as Berkeley, California, this would allow 16 and 17-year-olds to vote for President of the United States for the first time in 2020. Allen said that he was inspired by the high school students that participated in the March for Our Lives, which occurred at the capital in March.[4]

Simultaneous elections

Further information: United States Senate elections, 2020 and United States House of Representatives elections, 2020

The presidential election will occur at the same time as elections to the Senate and the House of Representatives. Several states will also hold state gubernatorial and state legislative elections. Following the election, the United States House will redistribute the seats among the 50 states based on the results of the 2020 United States Census, and the states will conduct a redistricting of Congressional and state legislative districts. In most states, the governor and the state legislature conduct the redistricting (although some states have redistricting commissions), and often a party that wins a presidential election experiences a coattail effect that also helps other candidates of that party win election.[5] Therefore, the party that wins the 2020 presidential election could also win a significant advantage in the drawing of new Congressional and state legislative districts that would stay in effect until the 2032 elections.[6]

Advantage of incumbency

An incumbent president seeking re-election usually faces no significant opposition during their respective party's primaries, especially if they are still popular. For Presidents Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama, for example, their respective paths to nomination became uneventful and the races become merely pro forma; all four then went on to win a second presidential term. Serious challenges are rare, but then generally presage failure to win the general election in the fall. During the 1976 Republican Party primaries, then-former California Governor Reagan carried 23 states while running against incumbent President Gerald Ford; Ford then went on to lose the presidential election to Jimmy Carter, albeit carrying more states. Senator Ted Kennedy then carried 12 states while running against President Carter during the 1980 Democratic Party primaries; Reagan then defeated Carter in the fall of 1980. Pat Buchanan captured a decent percentage of a protest vote against President George H. W. Bush during the 1992 Republican primaries, but only received a handful of delegates; Bush too subsequently went on to lose in the general election to Clinton.

General election polling

National
Trump vs. Biden
Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of error Donald
Trump		 Joe
Biden		 Others Undecided
Public Policy Polling[7] 846 March 23–25, 2018 ± 3.4% 39% 56% – 6%
Public Policy Polling[8] 687 February 9–11, 2018 ± 3.7% 42% 51% – 7%
CNN/SSRS[9] 1,005 January 14–18, 2018 ± 3.7% 37% 59% 2% 1%
Zogby Analytics[10] 847 January 12–15, 2018 ± 3.4% 38% 53% – 9%
Public Policy Polling[11] 862 December 11–12, 2017 ± 3.3% 40% 54% – 6%
Politico/Morning Consult[12] 1,993 November 9–11, 2017 ± 2.0% 35% 46% – 20%
Public Policy Polling[13] 572 October 27–29, 2017 ± 4.1% 38% 56% – 6%
Zogby Analytics[14] 1,514 October 19–25, 2017 ± 2.5% 41% 50% – 9%
Emerson College[15] 820 October 12–14, 2017 ± 3.4% 42% 51% – 7%
Public Policy Polling[16] 865 September 22–25, 2017 ± 3.3% 40% 53% – 6%
Public Policy Polling[17] 887 August 18–21, 2017 ± 3.3% 39% 51% – 11%
Public Policy Polling[18] 692 July 14–17, 2017 ± 3.7% 39% 54% – 7%
Public Policy Polling[19] 692 June 9–11, 2017 ± 3.7% 41% 54% – 5%
Public Policy Polling[20] 692 May 12–14, 2017 ± 3.7% 40% 54% – 6%
Public Policy Polling[21] 648 April 17–18, 2017 ± 3.9% 40% 54% – 6%
Public Policy Polling[22] 677 March 27–28, 2017 ± 3.8% 40% 54% – 6%
Trump vs. Blumenthal
Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of error Donald
Trump		 Richard
Blumenthal		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling[17] 887 August 18–21, 2017 ± 3.3% 39% 42% 19%
Trump vs. Booker
Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of error Donald
Trump		 Cory
Booker		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling[7] 846 March 23–25, 2018 ± 3.4% 39% 49% 12%
Public Policy Polling[8] 687 February 9–11, 2018 ± 3.7% 42% 46% 11%
Public Policy Polling[11] 862 December 11–12, 2017 ± 3.3% 40% 50% 10%
Public Policy Polling[13] 572 October 27–29, 2017 ± 4.1% 38% 49% 13%
Public Policy Polling[16] 865 September 22–25, 2017 ± 3.3% 40% 47% 13%
Public Policy Polling[17] 887 August 18–21, 2017 ± 3.3% 39% 42% 19%
Public Policy Polling[18] 692 July 14–17, 2017 ± 3.7% 40% 45% 15%
Public Policy Polling[19] 692 June 9–11, 2017 ± 3.7% 41% 43% 17%
Public Policy Polling[20] 692 May 12–14, 2017 ± 3.7% 39% 46% 15%
Public Policy Polling[21] 648 April 17–18, 2017 ± 3.9% 42% 42% 17%
Public Policy Polling[22] 677 March 27–28, 2017 ± 3.8% 42% 45% 13%
Trump vs. Clinton
Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of error Donald
Trump		 Hillary
Clinton		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling[16] 865 September 22–25, 2017 ± 3.3% 42% 47% 11%
Trump vs. Cuban
Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of error Donald
Trump		 Mark
Cuban		 Undecided
Emerson College[15] 820 October 12–14, 2017 ± 3.4% 43% 36% 22%
Public Policy Polling[17] 887 August 18–21, 2017 ± 3.3% 38% 42% 20%
Public Policy Polling[23] 941 February 21–22, 2017 ± 3.2% 41% 40% 19%
Trump vs. Daniels[note 1]
Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of error Donald
Trump		 Stormy
Daniels		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling[7] 846 March 23–25, 2018 ± 3.4% 41% 32% 27%
Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of error Donald
Trump		 Stephanie
Clifford		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling[7] 846 March 23–25, 2018 ± 3.4% 41% 42% 17%
Trump vs. Delaney
Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of error Donald
Trump		 John
Delaney		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling[17] 887 August 18–21, 2017 ± 3.3% 38% 38% 24%
Trump vs. Franken
Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of error Donald
Trump		 Al
Franken		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling[20] 692 May 12–14, 2017 ± 3.7% 38% 46% 16%
Public Policy Polling[21] 648 April 17–18, 2017 ± 3.9% 43% 43% 14%
Public Policy Polling[22] 677 March 27–28, 2017 ± 3.8% 41% 46% 13%
Trump vs. Gillibrand
Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of error Donald
Trump		 Kirsten
Gillibrand		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling[7] 846 March 23–25, 2018 ± 3.4% 40% 42% 18%
Public Policy Polling[8] 687 February 9–11, 2018 ± 3.7% 43% 42% 15%
YouGov[24] 865 January 9, 2018 – 43% 41% 16%
Public Policy Polling[11] 862 December 11–12, 2017 ± 3.3% 40% 47% 14%
Public Policy Polling[13] 572 October 27–29, 2017 ± 4.1% 38% 48% 14%
Public Policy Polling[16] 865 September 22–25, 2017 ± 3.3% 39% 42% 18%
Trump vs. Harris
Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of error Donald
Trump		 Kamala
Harris		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling[7] 846 March 23–25, 2018 ± 3.4% 39% 43% 18%
Public Policy Polling[8] 687 February 9–11, 2018 ± 3.7% 43% 43% 15%
Zogby Analytics[10] 847 January 12–15, 2018 ± 3.4% 41% 42% 16%
Public Policy Polling[11] 862 December 11–12, 2017 ± 3.3% 40% 46% 13%
Public Policy Polling[13] 572 October 27–29, 2017 ± 4.1% 39% 45% 16%
Public Policy Polling[16] 865 September 22–25, 2017 ± 3.3% 40% 41% 19%
Public Policy Polling[17] 887 August 18–21, 2017 ± 3.3% 39% 39% 22%
Zogby Analytics[25] 1,300 August 4–7, 2017 – 38% 41% 21%
Public Policy Polling[18] 692 July 14–17, 2017 ± 3.7% 40% 41% 19%
Public Policy Polling[19] 692 June 9–11, 2017 ± 3.7% 41% 42% 18%
Trump vs. Johnson
Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of error Donald
Trump		 Dwayne
Johnson		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling[20] 692 May 12–14, 2017 ± 3.7% 37% 42% 21%
Trump vs. Kennedy
Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of error Donald
Trump		 Joe
Kennedy III		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling[8] 687 February 9–11, 2018 ± 3.7% 43% 46% 12%
Trump vs. Obama
Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of error Donald
Trump		 Michelle
Obama		 Undecided
Zogby Analytics[10] 847 January 12–15, 2018 ± 3.4% 42% 49% 9%
Zogby Analytics[14] 1,514 October 19–25, 2017 ± 2.5% 44% 47% 9%
Public Policy Polling[16] 865 September 22–25, 2017 ± 3.3% 41% 51% 9%
Trump vs. Sanders
Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of error Donald
Trump		 Bernie
Sanders		 Others Undecided
Public Policy Polling[7] 846 March 23–25, 2018 ± 3.4% 39% 55% – 6%
Public Policy Polling[8] 687 February 9–11, 2018 ± 3.7% 44% 48% – 8%
CNN/SSRS[9] 1,005 January 14–18, 2018 ± 3.7% 39% 58% 3% 1%
Zogby Analytics[10] 847 January 12–15, 2018 ± 3.4% 39% 52% – 10%
YouGov[24] 856 January 9, 2018 – 43% 48% – 9%
Public Policy Polling[11] 862 December 11–12, 2017 ± 3.3% 40% 53% – 6%
Politico/Morning Consult[26] 2,586 November 16–19, 2017 ± 2.0% 36% 42% – 22%
Public Policy Polling[13] 572 October 27–29, 2017 ± 4.1% 38% 53% – 9%
Zogby Analytics[14] 1,514 October 19–25, 2017 ± 2.5% 40% 51% – 9%
Public Policy Polling[16] 865 September 22–25, 2017 ± 3.3% 40% 51% – 9%
Public Policy Polling[17] 887 August 18–21, 2017 ± 3.3% 38% 51% – 11%
Public Policy Polling[18] 692 July 14–17, 2017 ± 3.7% 39% 52% – 9%
Public Policy Polling[19] 692 June 9–11, 2017 ± 3.7% 41% 51% – 8%
Public Policy Polling[20] 692 May 12–14, 2017 ± 3.7% 39% 52% – 9%
Public Policy Polling[21] 648 April 17–18, 2017 ± 3.9% 41% 50% – 8%
Public Policy Polling[22] 677 March 27–28, 2017 ± 3.8% 41% 52% – 7%
Trump vs. Warren
Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of error Donald
Trump		 Elizabeth
Warren		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling[7] 846 March 23–25, 2018 ± 3.4% 40% 51% 9%
Public Policy Polling[8] 687 February 9–11, 2018 ± 3.7% 44% 44% 12%
Zogby Analytics[10] 847 January 12–15, 2018 ± 3.4% 40% 50% 10%
Public Policy Polling[27]
(for a Warren-aligned PAC)		 620 January 9–10, 2018 ± 3.9% 43% 49% 8%
Public Policy Polling[11] 862 December 11–12, 2017 ± 3.3% 42% 51% 7%
Public Policy Polling[13] 572 October 27–29, 2017 ± 4.1% 40% 50% 9%
Zogby Analytics[14] 1,514 October 19–25, 2017 ± 2.5% 43% 45% 13%
Emerson College[15] 820 October 12–14, 2017 ± 3.4% 44% 44% 12%
Democracy Corps/Greenberg Research[28] 1,000 September 30 – October 6, 2017 – 42% 54% 4%
Public Policy Polling[16] 865 September 22–25, 2017 ± 3.3% 41% 47% 12%
Public Policy Polling[17] 887 August 18–21, 2017 ± 3.3% 40% 45% 15%
Zogby Analytics[25] 1,300 August 4–7, 2017 – 37% 46% 17%
Public Policy Polling[18] 692 July 14–17, 2017 ± 3.7% 42% 49% 9%
Public Policy Polling[19] 692 June 9–11, 2017 ± 3.7% 43% 46% 11%
Public Policy Polling[20] 692 May 12–14, 2017 ± 3.7% 39% 49% 12%
Public Policy Polling[21] 648 April 17–18, 2017 ± 3.9% 42% 46% 13%
Public Policy Polling[22] 677 March 27–28, 2017 ± 3.8% 43% 48% 9%
Politico/Morning Consult[29] 1,791 February 9–10, 2017 ± 2.0% 42% 36% 22%
Trump vs. Wilson
Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of error Donald
Trump		 Frederica
Wilson		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling[13] 572 October 27–29, 2017 ± 4.1% 39% 42% 19%
Trump vs. Winfrey
Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of error Donald
Trump		 Oprah
Winfrey		 Others Undecided
CNN/SSRS[9] 1,005 January 14–18, 2018 ± 3.7% 39% 54% 6% 2%
Quinnipiac University[30] 1,212 January 12–16, 2018 ± 3.4% 39% 52% – 9%
Zogby Analytics[10] 847 January 12–15, 2018 ± 3.4% 46% 54% – 0%
Public Policy Polling[27]
(for a Warren-aligned PAC)		 620 January 9–10, 2018 ± 3.9% 43% 44% – 13%
NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist[31] 1,092 January 8–10, 2018 ± 3.0% 39% 50% – 11%
YouGov[24] 856 January 9, 2018 – 43% 47% – 10%
Rasmussen Reports[32] 1,000 January 8–9, 2018 ± 3.0% 38% 48% – 14%
Zogby Analytics[33] 1,531 March 27–29, 2017 ±2.5% 36% 46% – 18%
Public Policy Polling[34] 808 March 10–12, 2017 ± 3.4% 40% 47% – 12%
Trump vs. Zuckerberg
Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of error Donald
Trump		 Mark
Zuckerberg		 Undecided
Zogby Analytics[10] 847 January 12–15, 2018 ± 3.4% 40% 41% 19%
Zogby Analytics[25] 1,300 August 4–7, 2017 – 40% 43% 16%
Public Policy Polling[18] 836 July 14–17, 2017 ± 3.4% 40% 40% 20%
Trump vs. Zuckerberg vs. Scarborough
Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of error Donald
Trump		 Mark
Zuckerberg		 Joe
Scarborough		 Undecided
Zogby Analytics[25] 1,300 August 4–7, 2017 – 36% 34% 18% 12%
Pence vs. generic Democrat
Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of error Mike
Pence		 Democratic
candidate		 Undecided
Opinion Savvy[35] 762 August 16–17, 2017 ± 3.5% 40% 52% 8%
Trump vs. generic Democrat
Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of error Donald
Trump		 Democratic
candidate		 Others Undecided
NBC News/Wall Street Journal[36] 900 December 13–15, 2017 ± 3.6% 36% 52% 3% 9%
Politico/Morning Consult[26] 2,586 November 16–19, 2017 ± 2.0% 35% 44% – 21%
Politico/Morning Consult[12] 1,993 November 9–11, 2017 ± 2.0% 34% 48% – 18%
Politico/Morning Consult[37] 1,990 October 26–30, 2017 ± 2.0% 36% 46% – 18%
Opinion Savvy[35] 763 August 16–17, 2017 ± 3.5% 41% 52% – 8%
Gravis Marketing[38] 1,917 July 21–31, 2017 ± 2.2% 39% 48% – 13%
Politico/Morning Consult[29] 1,791 February 9–10, 2017 ± 2.0% 35% 43% – 23%
Statewide
California California

Trump vs. Biden

Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of error Donald
Trump		 Joe
Biden		 Undecided
SurveyUSA[39] 882 March 22–25, 2018 ± 3.8% 33% 56% 11%

Trump vs. Booker

Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of error Donald
Trump		 Cory
Booker		 Undecided
SurveyUSA[39] 882 March 22–25, 2018 ± 3.8% 35% 39% 26%

Trump vs. J. Brown

Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of error Donald
Trump		 Jerry
Brown		 Undecided
SurveyUSA[39] 882 March 22–25, 2018 ± 3.8% 35% 54% 11%

Trump vs. S. Brown

Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of error Donald
Trump		 Sherrod
Brown		 Undecided
SurveyUSA[39] 882 March 22–25, 2018 ± 3.8% 35% 36% 29%

Trump vs. Garcetti

Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of error Donald
Trump		 Eric
Garcetti		 Undecided
SurveyUSA[39] 882 March 22–25, 2018 ± 3.8% 34% 49% 17%
SurveyUSA[40] 909 January 7–9, 2018 ± 3.3% 32% 46% 21%

Trump vs. Gillibrand

Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of error Donald
Trump		 Kirsten
Gillibrand		 Undecided
SurveyUSA[39] 882 March 22–25, 2018 ± 3.8% 33% 47% 19%
SurveyUSA[40] 909 January 7–9, 2018 ± 3.3% 32% 46% 22%

Trump vs. Hanks

Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of error Donald
Trump		 Tom
Hanks		 Undecided
SurveyUSA[39] 882 March 22–25, 2018 ± 3.8% 34% 51% 15%
SurveyUSA[40] 909 January 7–9, 2018 ± 3.3% 31% 56% 14%

Trump vs. Harris

Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of error Donald
Trump		 Kamala
Harris		 Undecided
SurveyUSA[39] 882 March 22–25, 2018 ± 3.8% 35% 54% 12%
SurveyUSA[40] 909 January 7–9, 2018 ± 3.3% 33% 53% 13%

Trump vs. Holder

Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of error Donald
Trump		 Eric
Holder		 Undecided
SurveyUSA[39] 882 March 22–25, 2018 ± 3.8% 35% 38% 26%

Trump vs. Landrieu

Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of error Donald
Trump		 Mitch
Landrieu		 Undecided
SurveyUSA[39] 882 March 22–25, 2018 ± 3.8% 35% 36% 29%

Trump vs. Obama

Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of error Donald
Trump		 Michelle
Obama		 Undecided
SurveyUSA[39] 882 March 22–25, 2018 ± 3.8% 36% 57% 8%

Trump vs. Patrick

Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of error Donald
Trump		 Deval
Patrick		 Undecided
SurveyUSA[39] 882 March 22–25, 2018 ± 3.8% 34% 34% 32%

Trump vs. Warren

Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of error Donald
Trump		 Elizabeth
Warren		 Undecided
SurveyUSA[40] 909 January 7–9, 2018 ± 3.3% 32% 53% 14%

Trump vs. Winfrey

Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of error Donald
Trump		 Oprah
Winfrey		 Undecided
SurveyUSA[39] 882 March 22–25, 2018 ± 3.8% 35% 52% 13%
SurveyUSA[40] 909 January 7–9, 2018 ± 3.3% 32% 56% 12%

Trump vs. Zuckerberg

Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of error Donald
Trump		 Mark
Zuckerberg		 Undecided
SurveyUSA[39] 882 March 22–25, 2018 ± 3.8% 36% 42% 22%
SurveyUSA[40] 909 January 7–9, 2018 ± 3.3% 31% 50% 19%
Florida Florida

Trump vs. Warren

Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of error Donald
Trump		 Elizabeth
Warren		 Undecided
Zogby Analytics[41] 828 August 17–23, 2017 ± 3.4% 39% 48% 14%
Indiana Indiana

Trump vs. Warren

Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of error Donald
Trump		 Elizabeth
Warren		 Undecided
Zogby Analytics[41] 603 August 17–23, 2017 ± 4.0% 45% 39% 17%
Kentucky Kentucky

Trump vs. Warren

Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of error Donald
Trump		 Elizabeth
Warren		 Undecided
Zogby Analytics[41] 402 August 17–23, 2017 ± 4.9% 47% 41% 13%
Michigan Michigan

Trump vs. Biden

Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of error Donald
Trump		 Joe
Biden		 Undecided
Zogby Analytics[42] – September 2017 – 35% 52% 13%

Trump vs. Sanders

Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of error Donald
Trump		 Bernie
Sanders		 Undecided
Zogby Analytics[42] – September 2017 – 36% 54% 10%

Trump vs. Warren

Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of error Donald
Trump		 Elizabeth
Warren		 Undecided
Zogby Analytics[42] – September 2017 – 37% 46% 17%
Zogby Analytics[41] 803 August 17–23, 2017 ± 3.5% 35% 51% 14%
Missouri Missouri

Trump vs. Warren

Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of error Donald
Trump		 Elizabeth
Warren		 Undecided
Zogby Analytics[41] 604 August 17–23, 2017 ± 4.0% 40% 46% 14%
Montana Montana

Trump vs. Warren

Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of error Donald
Trump		 Elizabeth
Warren		 Undecided
Zogby Analytics[41] 403 August 17–23, 2017 ± 4.9% 45% 39% 17%
New Hampshire New Hampshire

Trump vs. Biden

Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of error Donald
Trump		 Joe
Biden		 Undecided
American Research Group[43] 1,365 March 21–27, 2018 ± 3.0% 39% 53% 8%

Trump vs. Sanders

Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of error Donald
Trump		 Bernie
Sanders		 Undecided
American Research Group[43] 1,365 March 21–27, 2018 ± 3.0% 49% 45% 5%

Trump vs. Warren

Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of error Donald
Trump		 Elizabeth
Warren		 Undecided
American Research Group[43] 1,365 March 21–27, 2018 ± 3.0% 50% 42% 9%

Kasich vs. Biden

Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of error John
Kasich		 Joe
Biden		 Undecided
American Research Group[43] 1,365 March 21–27, 2018 ± 3.0% 45% 46% 8%

Kasich vs. Warren

Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of error John
Kasich		 Elizabeth
Warren		 Undecided
American Research Group[43] 1,365 March 21–27, 2018 ± 3.0% 52% 37% 11%
North Carolina North Carolina

Trump vs. Biden

Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of error Donald
Trump		 Joe
Biden		 Others Undecided
Meredith College[44] 618 January 21–25, 2018 ± 4.0% 45% 46% 8% 1%

Trump vs. Cooper

Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of error Donald
Trump		 Roy
Cooper		 Others Undecided
Meredith College[44] 618 January 21–25, 2018 ± 4.0% 45% 43% 11% 1%

Trump vs. Gillibrand

Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of error Donald
Trump		 Kirsten
Gillibrand		 Others Undecided
Meredith College[44][note 2] 618 January 21–25, 2018 ± 4.0% 46% 36% 18% 1%

Trump vs. Warren

Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of error Donald
Trump		 Elizabeth
Warren		 Others Undecided
Meredith College[44] 618 January 21–25, 2018 ± 4.0% 48% 40% 12% 1%

Trump vs. Winfrey

Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of error Donald
Trump		 Oprah
Winfrey		 Others Undecided
Meredith College[44] 618 January 21–25, 2018 ± 4.0% 48% 38% 12% 2%
North Dakota North Dakota

Trump vs. Warren

Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of error Donald
Trump		 Elizabeth
Warren		 Undecided
Zogby Analytics[41] 403 August 17–23, 2017 ± 4.9% 47% 36% 17%
Ohio Ohio

Trump vs. Warren

Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of error Donald
Trump		 Elizabeth
Warren		 Undecided
Zogby Analytics[41] 805 August 17–23, 2017 ± 3.5% 40% 44% 16%
Pennsylvania Pennsylvania

Trump vs. Warren

Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of error Donald
Trump		 Elizabeth
Warren		 Undecided
Zogby Analytics[41] 813 August 17–23, 2017 ± 3.4% 38% 46% 16%
Texas Texas

Trump vs. Cuban

Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of error Donald
Trump		 Mark
Cuban		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling[45] – December 28, 2017 – 44% 47% 9%
West Virginia West Virginia

Trump vs. Warren

Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of error Donald
Trump		 Elizabeth
Warren		 Undecided
Zogby Analytics[41] 401 August 17–23, 2017 ± 4.9% 43% 40% 17%
Wisconsin Wisconsin

Trump vs. Warren

Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of error Donald
Trump		 Elizabeth
Warren		 Undecided
Zogby Analytics[41] 603 August 17–23, 2017 ± 4.0% 37% 48% 15%

Nominations

Republican Party

Further information: Republican Party presidential primaries, 2020

Donald Trump is eligible to run for re-election and intends to do so.[46] His reelection campaign has been ongoing since his victory in 2016, leading pundits to describe his tactic of holding rallies continuously throughout his presidency as a "never-ending campaign".[47] On January 20, 2017 at 5:11 PM, he submitted a letter as a substitute of FEC Form 2, for which he had reached the legal threshold for filing, in compliance with the Federal Election Campaign Act.[48]

Beginning in August 2017, reports arose that members of the Republican Party were preparing a "shadow campaign" against Trump, particularly from the moderate or establishment wings of the party.[49] A poor showing for the GOP in the 2018 midterm elections may lead to an influx of ambitious politicians vying to reclaim the nomination from Trump, as Arizona Senator John McCain has said that "[Republicans] see weakness in this president." Maine Senator Susan Collins, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, and former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie have all expressed doubts that Trump will be the 2020 nominee, with Collins stating "it's too difficult to say."[50][51] Meanwhile, Senator Jeff Flake has claimed that Trump is "inviting" a primary challenger by the way he is governing.[52]

Declared major candidates

The candidates in this section have held public office or been included in a minimum of five independent national polls.

Name Born Current or previous positions State Announced Ref
Donald Trump official portrait.jpg
Donald Trump		 June 14, 1946
(age 71)
New York City, New York		 President of the United States since 2017
Candidate for President in 2000		 Flag of New York.svg
New York		 August 19, 2016
TrumpPence20logo.png
(Campaign • Website)
FEC Filing		 [53]

Other declared candidates

Name Born Current or previous positions State Announced Ref
Jack Fellure.jpg
Jack Fellure		 October 3, 1931
(age 86)
Midkiff, West Virginia		 Retired engineer
Prohibition nominee for President in 2012
Candidate for President in 1988, 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008, and 2016		 Flag of West Virginia.svg
West Virginia		 November 9, 2016
FEC Filing		 [54]
Brad Thor signing books.jpg
Brad Thor		 August 21, 1969
(age 48)
Chicago, Illinois		 Thriller novelist Flag of Tennessee.svg
Tennessee		 April 21, 2018 [55]

Individuals who have publicly expressed interest

Individuals in this section have expressed an interest in running for President within the last six months.

Potential candidates

Declined to be candidates

The individuals in this section have been the subject of speculation about their possible candidacy, but have publicly denied interest in running.

Potential convention sites

Bids for the National Convention were solicited in the fall of 2017, with finalists being announced early the following spring. The winning bid will be revealed in the summer of 2018.

Endorsements

Donald Trump
Main article: List of Donald Trump presidential campaign endorsements, 2020
Brad Thor
Local officials
Declined to endorse
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Governors

Primary election polling

National
Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of error Tom
Cotton		 Ted
Cruz		 Jeff
Flake		 Trey
Gowdy		 Nikki
Haley		 John
Kasich		 Mike
Pence		 Colin
Powell		 Mitt
Romney		 Marco
Rubio		 Paul
Ryan		 Ben
Sasse		 Donald
Trump		 Oprah
Winfrey		 Others Undecided
CNN/SRSS[73] 458 March 22–25, 2018 ± 5.4% – 1% – 1% – 0% 1% 0% 1% – 1% – 75% 1% 7% 11%
USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times[117] 1,313 December 15, 2017 – January 15, 2018 ± 2.0% – – – – – – – – – – – – 75% – 25% –
Emerson College[118] 198 January 8–11, 2018 – – – – – – – – – – – – – 68% – 18% 14%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner/Democracy Corps[81] 370 January 8–11, 2018 – – 4% 1% – 4% 3% 11% – 5% 5% – – 62% – 0% 5%
Public Policy Polling[11] 284 December 11–12, 2017 ± 3.3% – – – – – – – – – – – – 70% – 24% 6%
– 21% – – – – – – – – – – 64% – – 15%
– – 16% – – – – – – – – – 74% – – 10%
– – – – – – 22% – – – – – 62% – – 15%
– – – – – 19% – – – – – – 70% – – 11%
Public Religion Research Institute[119] 846 October 18–30, 2017 – – – – – – – – – – – – – 59% – 34% 7%
Public Policy Polling[13] 183 October 27–29, 2017 – – – – – – – – – – – – – 57% – 36% 8%
– 27% – – – – – – – – – – 57% – – 16%
– – 14% – – – – – – – – – 70% – – 16%
– – – – – – 28% – – – – – 53% – – 19%
– – – – – 24% – – – – – – 66% – – 11%
Public Policy Polling[16] 268 September 22–25, 2017 – – – – – – – – – – – – – 61% – 27% 12%
– 15% – – – – – – – – – – 68% – – 17%
– – – – – – 21% – – – – – 59% – – 21%
– – – – – 18% – – – – – – 68% – – 13%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates[120]
(Trump-aligned)		 1,500 August 2017 ± 2.5% 1% 14% – – – 10% – – – – – 1% 50% – – 24%
Public Policy Polling[17] 275 August 18–21, 2017 – – – – – – – – – – – – – 57% – 29% 13%
– 22% – – – – – – – – – – 62% – – 17%
– – – – – – 24% – – – – – 52% – – 23%
– – – – – 21% – – – – – – 68% – – 11%
Opinion Savvy[35] 221 August 16–17, 2017 ± 6.6% – 12% – – – 15% 65% – – – – – – – – 8%
220 – – 8% – – 17% – – – – – – 68% – – 7%
Marist Poll[121] 361 August 8–12, 2017 ± 5.2% – – – – – 23% – – – – – – 64% – 3% 10%
– – – – – – 33% – – – – – 56% – 3% 8%
Statewide
New Hampshire New Hampshire
Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of error Tom
Cotton		 Ted
Cruz		 Jeff
Flake		 John
Kasich		 Mike
Pence		 Donald
Trump		 Others Undecided
American Research Group[43] 420 March 21–27, 2018 ± 5.0% – – 33% – – 49% – 18%
– – – 42% – 48% – 9%
– – 4% 34% – 51% – 11%
5% 7% 11% 36% – – – 41%
University of New Hampshire[122] 157 January 28 – February 10, 2018 ± 7.8% – – – – – 60% 18% 23%
University of New Hampshire[123] 191 October 3–15, 2017 ± 7.1% – – – – – 47% 23% 30%
American Research Group[124] 600 August 4–6, 2017 ± 4.0% – – – 52% – 40% – 8%
– – – 41% 27% – – 32%

Democratic Party

Further information: Democratic Party presidential primaries, 2020

After Hillary Clinton's loss in the previous election, the Democratic Party was seen largely as leaderless[125] and fractured between the centrist Clinton wing and the more progressive Sanders wing of the party, echoing the rift brought up in the 2016 primary election.[126][127] The party was further splintered by the DNC Chair election in February 2017 between moderate[dubious – discuss] Tom Perez and Sanders-backed progressive Keith Ellison.[128] Perez ended up winning the leadership position, with Ellison being appointed to the primarily ceremonial position of Deputy Chair in order to lessen the divide. This race was mirrored in the 2017 Virginia gubernatorial election where the establishment, Clinton-backed Ralph Northam won the party's primary against Sanders-backed Tom Perriello.[129] Meanwhile there has been a general shift to the left in regards to college tuition, healthcare, and immigration[citation needed] among Democrats in the Senate, likely to build up credentials for the upcoming primary election.[130]

Perez has commented that the 2020 primary field will likely go into double-digits, rivaling the size of the 2016 GOP primary, which consisted of 17 major candidates.[131] Speculation also mounted that Democrats' best bet to defeat President Trump would be to nominate their own celebrity or businessperson with no government experience, most notably Oprah Winfrey after her memorable speech at the 75th Golden Globe Awards.[132]

The topic of age has been brought up among the most likely front-runners: former Vice President Joe Biden, Massachusetts senator Elizabeth Warren, and senator Sanders; who will be 78, 71, and 79 respectively on inauguration day. Former Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid described the trio as "an old folks' home", expressing a need for fresh faces to step up and lead the party.[133]

Declared major candidates

The candidates in this section have held public office or been included in a minimum of five independent national polls.

Name Born Current or previous positions State Announced Ref
John Delaney 113th Congress official photo.jpg
John Delaney		 April 16, 1963
(age 55)
Wood-Ridge, New Jersey		 U.S. Representative from Maryland since 2013 Flag of Maryland.svg
Maryland		 July 28, 2017
John Delaney.png
(Campaign • Website)
FEC Filing		 [134]

Other declared candidates

Name Born Current or previous positions State Announced Ref
Jeff Boss.jpg
Jeff Boss		 May 20, 1963
(age 54)		 Conspiracy theorist
Candidate for U.S. Representative from New York in 2018
Candidate for Mayor of New York City in 2013 and 2017
Candidate for Governor of New Jersey in 2009, 2013, and 2017
Candidate for President in 2008, 2012, and 2016
Candidate for U.S. Representative in 2010 and 2016
Candidate for U.S. Senate in 2008 and 2014		 Flag of New York.svg
New York		 August 5, 2017
(Website)		 [135]
HB 2013 (cropped 2).jpg
Harry Braun		 November 6, 1948
(age 69)
Compton, California		 Renewable energy consultant and researcher
Democratic nominee for U.S. Representative from Arizona in 1984 and 1986
Candidate for President in 2004, 2012, and 2016		 Flag of Georgia (U.S. state).svg
Georgia		 December 7, 2017
FEC Filing		 [136]
Roque De La Fuente (cropped).jpg
Rocky De La Fuente		 October 10, 1954
(age 63)
San Diego, California		 Businessman and political activist
American Delta and Reform nominee for President in 2016
Candidate for U.S. Senate from California in 2018
Candidate for Mayor of New York City, New York in 2017
Candidate for U.S. Senate from Florida in 2016		 Flag of California.svg
California		 January 9, 2017 [137]
FullC489D2008-01-01.jpg
Geoffrey Fieger		 December 23, 1950
(age 67)
Detroit, Michigan		 Attorney
Democratic nominee for Governor of Michigan in 1998		 Flag of Michigan.svg
Michigan		 January 13, 2017 [138]
Robby Wells.PNG
Robby Wells		 April 10, 1968
(age 50)
Bartow, Georgia		 Former college football coach
Candidate for President in 2012 and 2016		 Flag of North Carolina.svg
North Carolina		 May 24, 2017
(Website)		 [139]
Andrew Yang talking about urban entrepreneurship at Techonomy Conference 2015 in Detroit, MI (cropped).jpg
Andrew Yang		 January 13, 1975
(age 43)
Schenectady, New York		 Entrepreneur Flag of New York.svg
New York		 November 6, 2017
Andrew Yang 2020 logo.png
(Website)
FEC Filing		 [140]

Individuals who have publicly expressed interest

Individuals in this section have expressed an interest in running for President within the last six months.

Potential candidates

Declined to be candidates

The individuals in this section have been the subject of speculation about their possible candidacy, but have publicly denied interest in running.

Potential convention sites

Bids for the National Convention were solicited in the fall of 2017, with finalists being announced early the following spring. The winning bid will be revealed in the summer of 2018.

Endorsements

John Delaney
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Representatives
Individuals
Andrew Yang
Individuals

Primary election polling

National
Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of error Joe
Biden		 Cory
Booker		 Sherrod
Brown		 Julian
Castro		 Hillary
Clinton		 Andrew
Cuomo		 Al
Franken		 Kirsten
Gillibrand		 Kamala
Harris		 Jason
Kander		 Joe
Kennedy III		 Amy
Klobuchar		 Terry
McAuliffe		 Michelle
Obama		 Tim
Ryan		 Bernie
Sanders		 Elizabeth
Warren		 Oprah
Winfrey		 Mark
Zuckerberg		 Others Undecided
Rasmussen Reports[311] 1,000 February 27–28, 2018 ± 3.0% 25% 4% – – 9% – – – 4% – – – 2% – – 12% 4% – – 25% 17%
Civis Analytics[312] – January 19, 2018 – 29% – – – – – – – – – – – – – – 27% – 17% – 27% –
Harvard CAPS/Harris[313] 441 January 13–16, 2018 – 27% 4% – – 13% 2% – 1% 4% – – – – – – 16% 10% 13% – – 10%
USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times[117] 1,699 December 15, 2017 – January 15, 2018 ± 2.0% 28% 3% – – 19% – – 2% 5% – 4% 1% – – 1% 22% 11% – – 4% –
RABA Research[314] 345 January 10–11, 2018 ± 5.0% 26% – – – – – – – – – – – – – – 21% 18% 20% – – 15%
Emerson College[118] 216 January 8–11, 2018 – 27% 3% – – – – – 3% 2% 4% – 2% – – – 23% 9% – – 9% 19%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner/Democracy Corps[81] 440 January 6–11, 2018 – 26% 6% – – – – – – – – – – – – – 29% 14% 8% – 12% 6%
Zogby Analytics[315] 682 October 30, 2017 – 19% – – – – 2% – 1% 3% – – 1% 2% 22% – 18% 8% – 4% – 20%
Zogby Analytics[316] 356 September 12, 2017 – 17% – – – – 3% – 3% 6% – – 1% 1% – – 28% 12% – 7% – 23%
Rasmussen Reports[317] 1,000 February 8–9, 2017 ± 3.0% 15% 8% – – 17% – 6% – – – – – – – – 20% 16% – – 20% –
Public Policy Polling[318] 400 December 6–7, 2016 ± 4.9% 31% 4% 2% 0% – 2% 3% 3% – – – – – – – 24% 16% – – – 14%
Statewide
Iowa Iowa
Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of error Cory
Booker		 Julian
Castro		 Andrew
Cuomo		 Kirsten
Gillibrand		 Kamala
Harris		 Amy
Klobuchar		 Martin
O'Malley		 Sheryl
Sandberg		 Howard
Schultz		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling[319]
(for an O'Malley-aligned PAC)		 1,062 March 3–6, 2017 – 17% 4% 8% 3% 3% 11% 18% 4% 1% 32%
New Hampshire New Hampshire
Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of error Joe
Biden		 Cory
Booker		 John
Delaney		 Kirsten
Gillibrand		 Kamala
Harris		 John
Hickenlooper		 Amy
Klobuchar		 Martin
O'Malley		 Tim
Ryan		 Bernie
Sanders		 Elizabeth
Warren		 Mark
Zuckerberg		 Others Undecided
American Research Group[43] 400 March 21–27, 2018 ± 5.0% 58% – – – – – – – – – 33% – – 8%
47% – – – – – – – – 45% – – – 7%
University of New Hampshire[122] 219 January 28 – February 10, 2018 ± 6.6% 35% 3% 0% 2% 1% – 0% 1% – 24% 15% – 4% 15%
University of New Hampshire[123] 212 October 3–15, 2017 ± 6.7% 24% 6% 0% 1% 1% 2% 1% 3% 1% 31% 13% 2% 5% 11%

Third-party, independent, and unaffiliated candidates

Libertarian Party

Further information: Libertarian Party presidential primaries, 2020
Declared candidates
Name Born Current or previous positions State Announced Ref
Zoltan Istvan public profile photo.jpg
Zoltan Istvan		 March 30, 1973
(age 45)
Los Angeles, California		 Transhumanist, journalist, entrepreneur, and Libertarian futurist
Transhumanist nominee for President in 2016
Candidate for Governor of California in 2018		 Flag of California.svg
California		 November 25, 2017
(Website)		 [320]
Kokesh2013.jpg
Adam Kokesh		 February 1, 1982
(age 36)
San Francisco, California		 Libertarian and anti-war political activist
Candidate for U.S. Representative from New Mexico in 2010		 Flag of Arizona.svg
Arizona		 July 18, 2013
(Campaign • Website)
FEC Filing		 [321]
Potential candidates
Declined to be candidates

The individuals in this section have been the subject of speculation about their possible candidacy, but have publicly denied interest in running.

Convention Site

On December 10, 2017, the Libertarian National Committee chose Austin, Texas as the site of their 2020 national convention. The convention will be held between May 22–25, 2020.[326]

Green Party

Further information: Green Party of the United States
Potential candidates
Declined to be candidates

The individuals in this section have been the subject of speculation about their possible candidacy, but have publicly denied interest in running.

Independent or unaffiliated

Beginning in August 2017, rumors emerged about a possible independent "unity ticket" between governors John Kasich (Republican of Ohio), and John Hickenlooper (Democrat of Colorado) based on their cooperation on healthcare. Playfully given the nicknames "Kasichlooper" and "The Johns," the idea of a joint ticket was shot down by both governors.[332] Hickenlooper commenting "it’s fun to talk about, but it’s not in the cards."[333] With Kasich quipping "Look, Kasich-Hickenlooper, first of all, you couldn't pronounce it and second of all, you couldn't fit it on a bumper sticker [...] the answer is no."

Declared candidates
Name Born Current or previous positions State Announced Ref
091507-USCNeb-LawrenceJackson.jpg
Lawrence Jackson		 August 30, 1985
(age 32)
Los Angeles, California		 Former football player Flag of California.svg
California		 November 23, 2017
FEC Filing		 [334]
Photo of Dan Rattiner.jpg
Dan Rattiner		 August 15, 1939
(age 78)
New York City, New York		 Journalist and newspaper publisher Flag of New York.svg
New York		 April 24, 2015 [335]
Kanye West at the 2009 Tribeca Film Festival.jpg
Kanye West		 June 8, 1977
(age 40)
Atlanta, Georgia		 Rapper, singer, songwriter, record producer, fashion designer, and entrepreneur Flag of California.svg
California		 August 30, 2015 [336]
Withdrawn candidates
Individuals who have publicly expressed interest

Individuals in this section have expressed an interest in running for President within the last six months.

Potential candidates
Declined to be candidates

The individuals in this section have been the subject of speculation about their possible candidacy, but have publicly denied interest in running.

Maps

  • The 50 states plus DC, scaled according to the number of electors in each state.

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Stormy Daniels and Stephanie Clifford are the same person. Polling has been done using both her professional name and her birth name.
  2. ^ In this poll, Kirsten Gillibrand's name was misspelled as "Kristen Gillebrand".
  3. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t This individual is not registered to the political party of this section, but has been the subject of speculation or expressed interest in running under this party.

References

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