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World Population
World Population
Published: 2007/09/21
Channel: Bob Gumbrecht
Z.P.G. Trailer
Z.P.G. Trailer
Published: 2008/06/19
Channel: michaelcampusfilms
A look in to the future / Zero population growth (1972)
A look in to the future / Zero population growth (1972)
Published: 2015/08/16
Channel: Onder Koffer V
Al Bartlett on the population taboo and ZPG
Al Bartlett on the population taboo and ZPG
Published: 2009/12/08
Channel: human4832
EDICTO SIGLO XXI PROHIBIDO TENER HIJOS / Z.P.G. ZERO POPULATION GROWTH (1972)
EDICTO SIGLO XXI PROHIBIDO TENER HIJOS / Z.P.G. ZERO POPULATION GROWTH (1972)
Published: 2015/04/03
Channel: Rostov
Human Population Growth - Crash Course Ecology #3
Human Population Growth - Crash Course Ecology #3
Published: 2012/11/19
Channel: CrashCourse
Problem With Zero Population Growth.flv
Problem With Zero Population Growth.flv
Published: 2010/03/21
Channel: Hunterkirk
Human Population Through Time
Human Population Through Time
Published: 2016/11/04
Channel: American Museum of Natural History
DON
DON'T PANIC — Hans Rosling showing the facts about population
Published: 2014/12/15
Channel: Gapminder Foundation
What is ZERO POPULATION GROW? What does ZERO POPULATION GROW mean?
What is ZERO POPULATION GROW? What does ZERO POPULATION GROW mean?
Published: 2017/09/03
Channel: The Audiopedia
DARPA ROBOT OUT OF 1972 MOVIE "ZERO POPULATION GROWTH"
DARPA ROBOT OUT OF 1972 MOVIE "ZERO POPULATION GROWTH"
Published: 2016/05/27
Channel: Onder Koffer V
Z P G  1972
Z P G 1972
Published: 2016/08/24
Channel: Mapas Dera
What Is Zero Population?
What Is Zero Population?
Published: 2017/08/23
Channel: Obu Obu
♥ "ZPG" - Zero Population Growth
♥ "ZPG" - Zero Population Growth
Published: 2011/10/14
Channel: 65Seasons
Profit Margin - "Zero Population Growth"
Profit Margin - "Zero Population Growth"
Published: 2016/06/22
Channel: eric c harrison
Saturday
Saturday's Warrior - Zero Population (Lyrics)
Published: 2011/04/06
Channel: aimalysev3
Alan Watt 1of2: Eugenics and genocide -- aka
Alan Watt 1of2: Eugenics and genocide -- aka 'zero population growth'
Published: 2010/08/03
Channel: LibertyTruthJustice
Survival Unit - Humanflood [Zero Population Growth]
Survival Unit - Humanflood [Zero Population Growth]
Published: 2011/04/25
Channel: MisterMavet
History of Human Population Growth - Great Animated World Map & Stats
History of Human Population Growth - Great Animated World Map & Stats
Published: 2017/06/29
Channel: Wise Wanderer
Zero Population Growth 1972 Rus sempl
Zero Population Growth 1972 Rus sempl
Published: 2014/05/21
Channel: kosmoaelita sasha
Leftover Crack - Zero Population Growth (Life Is Pain)
Leftover Crack - Zero Population Growth (Life Is Pain)
Published: 2009/06/14
Channel: keymaster2
Zero population growth. #clunk4mayor
Zero population growth. #clunk4mayor
Published: 2014/03/02
Channel: Clunk
Zero Population Growth
Zero Population Growth
Published: 2008/11/02
Channel: vinylskirt
Zero Population Growth
Zero Population Growth
Published: 2010/04/09
Channel: ninanunuful
What Is Zero Population?
What Is Zero Population?
Published: 2017/08/25
Channel: Queen Queen
EDICTO SIGLO XXI; PROHIBIDO TENER HIJOS (Z.P.G. Zero Population Growth)
EDICTO SIGLO XXI; PROHIBIDO TENER HIJOS (Z.P.G. Zero Population Growth)
Published: 2013/06/07
Channel: Rostov
zero population 1
zero population 1
Published: 2017/07/25
Channel: thisisnotdanny
Population Zero Movie. Official Trailer. 2017.
Population Zero Movie. Official Trailer. 2017.
Published: 2017/03/06
Channel: facefilmsltd
THE HOMICIDES - ZERO POPULATION
THE HOMICIDES - ZERO POPULATION
Published: 2017/06/08
Channel: Ratmuzik68
SURVIAL UNIT - Humanflood (Zero Population Growth)
SURVIAL UNIT - Humanflood (Zero Population Growth)
Published: 2017/08/29
Channel: verdajulius
Population Explosion - ECU #156
Population Explosion - ECU #156
Published: 2007/02/19
Channel: Frank Melli
Zero Population Growth
Zero Population Growth
Published: 2015/01/20
Channel: Dayna Cullen
[Sci-Fi] Z.P.G. (Zero Point Growth) (1972) - Trailer
[Sci-Fi] Z.P.G. (Zero Point Growth) (1972) - Trailer
Published: 2017/01/14
Channel: Zé da Adega
Alan Watt 1of2: Zero population growth (aka eugenics & genocide)
Alan Watt 1of2: Zero population growth (aka eugenics & genocide)
Published: 2010/03/04
Channel: freebroadcasting
Understanding No Growth Isocline Graphs
Understanding No Growth Isocline Graphs
Published: 2016/10/15
Channel: James Love
Pope Gives Trump Eco Tract Written By Radical Zero Population Globalists
Pope Gives Trump Eco Tract Written By Radical Zero Population Globalists
Published: 2017/05/25
Channel: Can we STOP the Insanity of the world
Order of The Gash "Zero Population Growth"
Order of The Gash "Zero Population Growth"
Published: 2011/12/01
Channel: Obliterated Corvid
Population ecology part 1 population growth and growth rate
Population ecology part 1 population growth and growth rate
Published: 2013/11/13
Channel: Shomu's Biology
"Beefcake" Part 1 from the play Zero Population Growth
"Beefcake" Part 1 from the play Zero Population Growth
Published: 2008/07/30
Channel: Mac Welch
Lilys: The Law
Lilys: The Law
Published: 2017/04/14
Channel: babachant
Pope Gives Trump Eco-Tract Written By Radical Zero-Population Globalists
Pope Gives Trump Eco-Tract Written By Radical Zero-Population Globalists
Published: 2017/05/25
Channel: The Alex Jones Channel
Let
Let's Play ZPC (Zero Population Growth) for Windows Part 2
Published: 2010/07/11
Channel: Nopperabou
Solow Model Diagram Problem - Effect of Decrease in Population Growth (per capita Capital & Output)
Solow Model Diagram Problem - Effect of Decrease in Population Growth (per capita Capital & Output)
Published: 2012/12/08
Channel: economicurtis
Alan Watt 2of2: Zero population growth (aka eugenics & genocide)
Alan Watt 2of2: Zero population growth (aka eugenics & genocide)
Published: 2010/03/04
Channel: freebroadcasting
Zero Population Growth - A Reducation of Technology-Standards
Zero Population Growth - A Reducation of Technology-Standards
Published: 2010/09/07
Channel: Hunterkirk
042911-Zero Population Growth vs. Be Fruitful Multiply Economic Prosperity
042911-Zero Population Growth vs. Be Fruitful Multiply Economic Prosperity
Published: 2011/04/29
Channel: Paul McGuire
Namo - Zero Population Growth Policy
Namo - Zero Population Growth Policy
Published: 2016/12/20
Channel: Dystopian Caveman
Alan Watt 2of2: Eugenics and genocide -- aka
Alan Watt 2of2: Eugenics and genocide -- aka 'zero population growth'
Published: 2010/08/03
Channel: LibertyTruthJustice
population
population
Published: 2010/04/23
Channel: PaperBark
"Beefcake" Part 2 from the play Zero Population Growth
"Beefcake" Part 2 from the play Zero Population Growth
Published: 2008/07/30
Channel: Mac Welch
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WIKIPEDIA ARTICLE

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Zero population growth, sometimes abbreviated ZPG (also called the replacement level of fertility),[1] is a condition of demographic balance where the number of people in a specified population neither grows nor declines, considered as a social aim by some.[2] According to some, zero population growth, perhaps after stabilizing at some optimum population, is the ideal towards which countries and the whole world should aspire in the interests of accomplishing long-term environmental sustainability.[3] What it means by ‘the number of people neither grows nor declines’ is that births plus in-migrants equal deaths plus out-migrants.[4]

History[edit]

A loosely defined goal of ZPG is to match the replacement fertility rate, which is the average number of children per woman which would hold the population constant. This replacement fertility will depend on mortality rates and the sex ratio at birth, and varies from around 2.1 in developed countries to over 3.0 in some developing countries.[5]

The American sociologist and demographer Kingsley Davis is credited with coining the term[6][7] but it was used earlier by George Stolnitz, who stated that the concept of a stationary population dated back to 1693.[8] A mathematical description was given by James Mirrlees.[9]

In the late 1960s ZPG became a prominent political movement in the U.S. and parts of Europe, with strong links to environmentalism and feminism. Yale University was a stronghold of the ZPG activists who believed “that a constantly increasing population is responsible for many of our problems: pollution, violence, loss of values and of individual privacy.”[10] Founding fathers of the movement were Paul Ehrlich, author of The Population Bomb, Richard Bowers, a Connecticut lawyer, and Professor Charles Lee Remington.[11] Ehrlich stated: “The mother of the year should be a sterilized woman with two adopted children.”

Effects[edit]

In the long term, zero population growth can be achieved when the birth rate of a population equals the death rate, i.e. fertility is at replacement level and birth and death rates are stable, a condition also called demographic equilibrium. Unstable rates can lead to drastic changes in population levels. This analysis is valid for the planet as whole, but not necessarily for a region or country as it ignores migration. A population that has been growing in the past will have a higher proportion of young people. As it is younger people who have children, there is large time lag between the point at which the fertility rate (mean total number of children each woman has during her childbearing years) falls to the replacement level (the fertility rate which would result in equal birth and death rates for a population at equilibrium) and the point at which the population stops rising.[12] The reason for this is that even though the fertility rate has dropped to replacement level, people already within a population continue to live for some time. Therefore, equilibrium, with a static population, will not be reached until the first "replacement level" birth cohorts reach old age and die. The related calculations are complex because the population's overall death rate can vary over time, and mortality also varies with age (being highest among the old).

Conversely, with fertility below replacement, a large elderly generation eventually results (as in an aging “baby boom”); but since that generation failed to replace itself during its fertile years, a subsequent “population bust”, or decrease in population, will occur when the older generation dies off. This effect has been termed birth dearth. In addition, if a country's fertility is at replacement level, and has been that way for at least several decades (to stabilize its age distribution), then that country's population could still experience coincident growth due to continuously increasing life expectancy, even though the population growth is likely to be smaller than it would be from natural population increase.

Zero population growth is often a goal of demographic planners and environmentalists who believe that reducing population growth is essential for the health of the ecosystem. Preserving cultural traditions and ethnic diversity is a factor for not allowing human populations levels or rates to fall too low. Achieving ZPG is difficult because a country's population growth is often determined by economic factors, incidence of poverty, natural disasters, disease, etc.

However, even if there is zero population growth, there may be changes in demographics of great importance to economic factors, such as changes in age distribution.

How ZPG can be achieved[edit]

Number of demographic experts have suggested a few ways to reach zero population growth.

Biologist Alan D. Thornhill and Author Daniel Quinn argue that human population growth is a function of the human food supply[13] and that human population growth can only be achieved by an expanded food supply to support the growing population. In 1998, they produced a video entitled "Food Production and Human Population Growth" where they explain the theory and answer audience questions.

Albert Bartlett, an emeritus professor of physics at University of Colorado at Boulder in his lifetime, suggested that the population have following choices to be at ZPG:

  1. Voluntarily limit births and immigration to achieve zero population growth;
  2. Continue on the present path until our population is so large that draconian measures become necessary to stop the growth of population;
  3. Do nothing and let nature stop the growth through disease, starvation, war and pestilence. If humans do not solve the problem, nature will.[14]

Similarly, Jason Brent, another demographic expert, argues that there are three to achieve zero population growth. His argument is as follows:

  1. By war, with or without weapons of mass destruction, starvation, disease, rape, murder, ethnic cleansing, concentration camps, and other horrors beyond the imagination, when humanity has exceeded the carrying capacity of the Earth.
  2. By the voluntary action of all of humanity prior to the human population exceeding the carrying capacity of the Earth. If any group or even if a single-family failed to control its population the entire program would fail.
  3. By coercive population control prior to the human population exceeding the carrying capacity of the Earth.[15]

In China[edit]

China is the largest country by population in the world, being home to some 1.3 billion people. China is expected to witness a zero population growth rate by 2030. China's population growth has slowed since the beginning of this century. This was mostly the result of China's economic growth and increasing living standards which led to the decline. However, many demographers also credit China's family planning policy, which was formulated in the early 1970s, encourages late marriages, late childbearing, and the use of contraceptives, and since 1980 has limited most urban couples to one child and most rural couples to two children. According to government projections, the work-age population will then drop to 870 million. It was said, in 2009, that the Chinese government was hoping to see zero population growth in the future[16] but, in November 2013, a relaxation of the one-child policy was announced amid unpopularity, reduced labour pool and support for an ageing population.[17]

In Europe[edit]

In Japan[edit]

See also[edit]

References[edit]

  1. ^ Zero Population Growth Organizanion. "Zero Population Growth." BookRags Staff. N.p., 2005. Web. 7 Oct. 2009. <http://www.bookrags.com/research/zero-population-growth-enve-02/>
  2. ^ Kingsley Davis (1973) "Zero population growth: the goal and the means" in The No-Growth Society, Mancur Olson & Hans H. Landsberg, eds. New York: Norton
  3. ^ Last, John M. "Zero Population Growth." Healthline. N.p., 2002. Web. 5 Oct. 2009. <"Archived copy". Archived from the original on July 22, 2011. Retrieved October 7, 2009. >.
  4. ^ Haupt, Arthur, and Thomas Kane (1991) "The Population Reference Bureau's Population Handbook", 3d ed. Washington, D.C.: Population Reference Bureau
  5. ^ Espenshade, Thomas J.; Guzman, Juan Carlos and Westoff, Charles F. "The Surprising Global Variation in Replacement Fertility", Population Research and Policy Review, Vol.22, No. 5-6, Dec. 2003, pp. 575-583.
  6. ^ Davis, Kingsley (1967). "Population policy: Will current programs succeed?". Science. 158 (3802): 730–739. PMID 6069101. doi:10.1126/science.158.3802.730. 
  7. ^ "Kingsley Davis, Hoover fellow, demographer, sociologist, dies at age 88 (3/97)". www.stanford.edu. Retrieved 16 September 2017. 
  8. ^ Stolnitz, George J. (1955). "A Century of International Mortality Trends_ I". Population Studies. Population Investigation Committee. 9 (1): 24–55. JSTOR 2172340. doi:10.2307/2172340. 
  9. ^ Mirrlees, J. A. (1967). "Optimum Growth When Technology is Changing". The Review of Economic Studies. The Review of Economic Studies Ltd. 34 (1): 95–124. JSTOR 2296573. doi:10.2307/2296573. 
  10. ^ “ZPG – A New Movement Challenges the U.S. to Stop Growing”, LIFE magazine, April 27, 1970, page 12ff
  11. ^ "Whatever happend to Zero Population Growth (ZPG)?". Retrieved 16 September 2017. 
  12. ^ "The Population Explosion". www.ditext.com. Retrieved 16 September 2017. 
  13. ^ Hoffenberg, Ruseell; Pimentel (March 2001). "Human Population Numbers as a Function of Food Supply". Environment, Development and Sustainability. Kluwer Academic Publishers. doi:10.1023/A:1011463231976. Retrieved 12 December 2015. 
  14. ^ Bartlett, Albert A. & Lytwak, Edward P. “Zero Growth of the Population of the United States.” (http://www.albartlett.org/articles/ee_zero_growth_population_us_1995.pdf), Population and Environment, Vol.16, Issue 5, May. 1995, pp 415-428
  15. ^ Wooldbridge, Frosty (27 Feb 2013). “Zero population growth: only way out of world population overload” (http://churchandstate.org.uk/2013/03/zero-population-growth-only-way-out/).[permanent dead link] Church and State, Retrieved 2015-04-07.
  16. ^ Xiang, Zhang (21 July 2009). "China expected to see zero population growth by 2030: expert". China View. Retrieved 2010-03-01. 
  17. ^ "China reforms: One-child policy to be relaxed". BBC News. 15 November 2013. Retrieved 2014-08-25. 

External links[edit]

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